TAIL EXPECTILE ESTIMATION IN THE SEMIPARAMETRIC GENERALIZED PARETO MODEL
半参数广义帕累托模型中的尾部期望分位数估计AI 解读 ↓
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半参数广义帕累托模型中的尾部期望分位数估计AI 解读 ↓
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Expectiles have received increasing attention as a market risk measure that is both coherent and elicitable. They are defined as a least squares analog to quantiles. Their estimation from heavy-tailed loss data in an extreme value framework is an important and difficult problem, especially when the target tail expectile is beyond the range of the data. This problem has been studied only fairly recently, using solely the Weissman extrapolation method. The competing generalized Pareto approach, which makes efficient use of tail observations by incorporating the location, scale, and shape extreme value parameters into the estimation procedure, has been left untouched, with a corresponding theory completely lacking. In this article, we challenge the dominance of the Weissman device by presenting and developing the theory of two classes of semiparametric Generalized Pareto estimators: the first class relies on direct asymmetric least squares estimation, while the second is based on extreme quantile estimation. Our estimators are found to outperform the best-known Weissman-type estimators for real-valued profit–loss distributions, while staying competitive for nonnegative loss variables. A forecast comparison exercise is also conducted on various sets of financial returns, showing the superiority of the generalized Pareto approach.
经典估计的 MCMC 方法
This paper studies computationally and theoretically attractive estimators called the Laplace type estimators (LTE), which include means and quantiles of Quasi-posterior distributions defined as transformations of general (non-likelihood-based) statistical criterion functions, such as those in GMM, nonlinear IV, empirical likelihood, and minimum distance methods. The approach generates an alternative to classical extremum estimation and also falls outside the parametric…
贝叶斯平滑分位数回归
The standard asymmetric Laplace framework for Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) suffers from a fundamental decision-theoretic misalignment, yielding biased finite-sample estimates, and precludes gradient-based computation due to non-smoothness. We propose Bayesian smoothed quantile regression (BSQR), a principled framework built on a kernel-smoothed, fully differentiable likelihood. Methodologically, the symmetrizing property of our objective reduces inferential bias and…
分位数积分的非参数统计推断基础
We present a general non-parametric statistical inference theory for integrals of quantiles without assuming any specific sampling design or dependence structure. Technical considerations are accompanied by examples and discussions, including those pertaining to the bias of empirical estimators. To illustrate how the general results can be adapted to specific situations, we derive - at a stroke and under minimal conditions - consistency and asymptotic normality of the…
面向极端风险的面板分位数回归
Panel quantile regression models play an essential role in finance, insurance, and risk management applications. However, a direct application of panel regression for extreme conditional quantiles may suffer from a significant estimation uncertainty due to data sparsity on the far tail. We introduce a two-stage method to predict extreme conditional quantiles over cross-sections, which uses panel quantile regression at a selected intermediate level and then extrapolates the…
二元分布回归及其保险数据应用
Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given observed circumstances. This article presents an estimation method for modeling the conditional joint distribution of bivariate outcomes based on the distribution regression and factorization methods. This method is considered semiparametric in…
条件异方差时间序列模型的混合分位数回归估计
Summary Estimating conditional quantiles of financial time series is essential for risk management and many other financial applications. For time series models with conditional heteroscedasticity, although it is the generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model that has the greatest popularity, quantile regression for this model usually gives rise to non-smooth non-convex optimization which may hinder its practical feasibility. The paper proposes an…