Modeling structural equations with endogenous regressors and heterogeneity through derivative constraints
通过导数约束建模内生解释变量与异质性结构方程AI 解读 ↓
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通过导数约束建模内生解释变量与异质性结构方程AI 解读 ↓
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In this paper, I present a general modeling framework for nonparametric models with endogenous regressors and heterogeneity. I show that many existing models in the literature can be derived from a structural equation with unobserved heterogeneity by imposing constancy assumptions on the first and second derivatives. I consider a less restrictive model that imposes constancy assumptions on the second partial derivative of the structural equation. Assuming the existence of suitable instrumental variables, I provide identification results and show that the model can be estimated using a generalized control function approach. I consider an application to the estimation of the returns to education in Chile, exploiting variation across regions and cohorts in educational infrastructure and compulsory schooling laws. Using penalized spline functions to approximate the components of the average structural function, I find that the local average returns to schooling are highly nonlinear and typically underestimated by flexible models that ignore the endogeneity of schooling. I also find evidence of credential effects for high school and college graduates, and limited evidence of comparative advantage bias in the returns to certain levels of education.
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We propose a Bayesian nonparametric instrumental variable approach under additive separability that allows us to correct for endogeneity bias in regression models where the covariate effects enter with unknown functional form. Bias correction relies on a simultaneous equations specification with flexible modeling of the joint error distribution implemented via a Dirichlet process mixture prior. Both the structural and instrumental variable equation are specified in terms of…
分布型工具变量:识别与分位数最小二乘估计
We study instrumental-variable designs where policy reforms strongly shift the distribution of an endogenous variable but only weakly move its mean. We formalize this by introducing distributional relevance: instruments may be purely distributional. Within a triangular model, distributional relevance suffices for nonparametric identification of average structural effects via a control function. We then propose Quantile Least Squares (Q-LS), which aggregates conditional…
最小稀疏性下含高维干扰函数的根号样本量一致半参数学习
Treatment effect estimation under unconfoundedness is a fundamental task in causal inference. In response to the challenge of analyzing high-dimensional datasets collected in substantive fields such as epidemiology, genetics, economics, and social sciences, various methods for treatment effect estimation with high-dimensional nuisance parameters (the outcome regression and the propensity score) have been developed in recent years. However, it is still unclear what is the…
利用异方差神经网络学习双向因果交互
Estimating contemporaneous bidirectional interactions from observational data is difficult because each outcome is endogenous to the other, while flexible regressions may capture only reduced-form dependence. This paper proposes SEM-DNN, a heteroscedastic neural simultaneous-equation estimator that learns reciprocal structural interactions without external instruments. Identification exploits conditional covariance diagonalization: when structural shocks have zero…
通过最优传输部分识别工具变量下的政策相关处理效应
Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects (PRTEs) are generally not point-identified under standard Instrumental Variable (IV) assumptions when the instrument generates limited support in treatment propensity. We show that PRTE partial identification in the generalized Roy model can instead be formulated as a Constrained Conditional Optimal Transport (CCOT) problem over the joint conditional law of the potential outcome and the latent resistance. The resulting multidimensional CCOT…
多弱工具变量下的非参数工具变量推断
We study inference on linear functionals in the nonparametric instrumental variable (NPIV) problem with a discretely-valued instrument under a many-weak-instruments asymptotic regime, where the number of instrument values grows with the sample size. A key motivating example is estimating long-term causal effects in a new experiment with only short-term outcomes, using past experiments to instrument for the effect of short- on long-term outcomes. Here, the assignment to a…