Box-Type Approximations in Nonparametric Factorial Designs
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Linear rank statistics in nonparametric factorial designs are asymptotically normal and, in general, heteroscedastic. In a comprehensive simulation study, the asymptotic chi-squared law of the corresponding quadratic forms is shown to be a rather poor approximation of the finite-sample distribution. Motivated by this problem, we propose simple finite-sample size approximations for the distribution of quadratic forms in factorial designs under a normal heteroscedastic error structure. These approximations are based on an F distribution with estimated degrees of freedom that generalizes ideas of Patnaik and Box. Simulation studies show that the nominal level is maintained with high accuracy and in most cases the power is comparable to the asymptotic maximin Wald test. Data-driven guidelines are given to select the most appropriate test procedure. These ideas are finally transferred to nonparametric factorial designs where the same quadratic forms as in the parametric case are applied to the vector of averaged ranks. A simulation study shows that the corresponding nonparametric “F-test” keeps its level with high accuracy and has power comparable to that of the rank version of the likelihood statistic.
We develop a semiparametric continuous time inferential framework for testing cumulative treatment effects, including both immediate and carryover effects. The latent state process is modeled by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose drift depends on state and treatment, while the observed data are noisy measurements of this latent state at irregular, multi resolution time points. We define the average treatment effect (ATE) as the difference of expected cumulative…
We study inference for continuous linear functionals of solutions to ill-posed inverse problems, including Euclidean parameters arising in nonparametric instrumental variables, proximal causal inference, and shadow-variable models. Although pointwise root-$n$ inference is possible under standard conditions, we show that this need not translate into locally reliable inference. Under a model imposing only minimal regularity conditions, the target is Hellinger discontinuous…
Motivation: Mediation analysis is an important tool for elucidating causal mechanisms in biomedical research and has recently gained increasing attention in microbiome studies. Motivated by a microbiome study of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients, we investigate whether the effect of induction chemotherapy intensity on infection status is mediated through gut microbial taxa. This problem poses substantial methodological challenges due to the high dimensionality, zero…
This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
PICPIs:预测区间条件预测区间
A classical question in statistics is which observable quantities to condition on when drawing inferences about unobservable targets. For conformal prediction in nonparametric uncertainty quantification, standard marginal validity offers limited resolution at the prediction values on which decisions are based, and fully conditional guarantees with respect to the covariates are provably unattainable. We address this gap by introducing a prediction-based conditioning framework…