Towards an Economic Theory of Replacement Investment
走向重置投资的经济理论AI 解读 ↓
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分类依据与纠错
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：内容为重置投资经济理论及计量建模基础，未明确提出已列细分领域中的具体估计方法。
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走向重置投资的经济理论
- 研究问题
- 研究关注重置投资如何由经济条件决定，以及利率和税法变化的长短期影响；同时检视将重置率设为技术常数是否合理。
- 方法与思路
- 作者构建重置投资的经济理论，用于投资行为计量模型的设定，并分析利率、税法变动及固定重置率假设的局限；具体推导未说明。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称为重置投资提供经济理论基础，并讨论技术性固定重置率假设为何即使在渐近极限下也不成立，为后续实证建模提供依据。
- 阅读关注点
- 核对重置决策的目标与约束、利率和税法影响的推导，以及否定固定重置率所需条件；区分理论结论与可检验的经验命题。
- 阅读边界
- 所给摘要及引言文字未展示完整模型、推导或实证检验；无法判断政策效应的具体方向、大小，以及理论在实际数据中的解释力。
原文摘要
This paper develops an economic theory of replacement investment that can provide a basis for specifying an econometric model of investment behavior. The long-run and short-run effects of changes in the interest rate and in tax laws are examined. The paper also investigates several reasons why the common assumption of a technologically constant rate of replacement is incorrect even as an asymptotic limit. LARGE VARIATIONS in capital spending continue to motivate econometric studies of investment behavior. The past decade has seen the development of attempts to model net investment as the adjustment of the capital stock to a desirable level. Building on earlier work by Lutz [35], Haavelmo [21], and others, Jorgenson and his collaborators (e.g. [24, 28, 31, and 33]) have provided an operational model of net capital accumulation that relates desired capital to the cost of capital services. Although serious objections have been raised about the specification of the optimal capital stock (including [5, 9, 13, and 15]) and about the arbitrary nature of the adjustment dynamics [37], it is likely that some form of this general model will continue to provide a framework for future investment studies. In contrast to these developments of a theory of capital expansion, replacement investment continues to be analyzed in terms of a non-economic model of technical necessity. Jorgenson and others have adopted the simplifying assumption that replacement investment is a constant proportion of the capital stock.2 This assumption has been challenged and contrary evidence has been offered by Feldstein and Foot [14] and Eisner [10]. The purpose of the current paper is to examine several aspects of a theory of replacement investment. We hope not only to show that a model with a constant replacement rate is implausible and unsatisfactory but also to provide a basis for better empirical work in the future. The magnitude of replacement investment (the annual rate of replacement investment generally exceeds expansion investment) makes this issue a matter of substantial importance.