Factor Model Estimation for High-Dimensional Time Series with Heteroskedastic Noise
异方差噪声下高维时间序列的因子模型估计AI 解读 ↓
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异方差噪声下高维时间序列的因子模型估计AI 解读 ↓
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Factor modeling provides a framework for extracting common components from high-dimensional time series. We develop an estimator of the factor loading space that combines contemporaneous covariance with lagged autocovariance information. Under cross-sectionally heteroskedastic white noise, the contemporaneous covariance contains heterogeneous diagonal noise contributions. We apply the existing HeteroPCA algorithm to the combined estimation matrix to correct this contamination while retaining information from serial dependence. The framework also accommodates noise contamination on a known set of entries subject to sparsity and incoherence conditions. Under regularity conditions for dependent observations, we establish consistency and derive convergence rates, identifying regimes in which incorporating contemporaneous covariance improves the rate relative to the lagged-autocovariance estimator. Simulations evaluate loading-space estimation error and the effects of contemporaneous covariance inclusion and diagonal correction. An application to S\&P 500 stock returns illustrates the method.
含部分已知因子与潜在因子的高维矩阵时间序列建模
This article considers to model large-dimensional matrix time series by introducing a regression term to the matrix factor model. This is an extension of classic matrix factor model to incorporate the information of known factors or useful covariates. We establish the convergence rates of coefficient matrix, loading matrices and the signal part. The theoretical results coincide with the rates in Wang et al. (2019). We conduct numerical studies to verify the performance of…
In large-scale panel data models with latent factors the number of factors and their loadings may change over time. Treating the break date as unknown, this article proposes an adaptive group-LASSO estimator that consistently determines the numbers of pre- and post-break factors and the stability of factor loadings if the number of factors is constant. We develop a cross-validation procedure to fine-tune the data-dependent LASSO penalties and show that after the number of…
High‐dimensional non‐stationary time series, which reveal both complex trends and stochastic behaviour, occur in many scientific fields, e.g. macroeconomics, finance, neuroeconomics, etc. To model these, we propose a generalized dynamic semi‐parametric factor model with a two‐step estimation procedure. After choosing smoothed functional principal components as space functions (factor loadings), we extract various temporal trends by employing variable selection techniques for…
高维动态因子模型下的多重检验
Large-scale multiple testing under static factor models is widely used to detect sparse signals in high-dimensional data. However, static factor models are arguably too stringent because they ignore serial correlation, which seriously distorts error rate control in large-scale inference. In this manuscript, we propose a new multiple testing procedure under dynamic factor models that is robust to nonlinear serial dependence. The idea is to integrate a new sample-splitting…
基于张量因子模型的张量时间序列缺失值插补
We propose tensor time series imputation when the missing pattern in the tensor data can be general, as long as any two data positions along a tensor fibre are both observed for enough time points. The method is based on a tensor time series factor model with Tucker decomposition of the common component. One distinguished feature of the tensor time series factor model used is that there can be weak factors in the factor loadings matrix for each mode. This reflects reality…
Summary Various factor estimation procedures have been developed, based on the latent factor model. They often consider general conditions that allow for correlations and heteroscedasticity. However, the conventional principal components method does not efficiently estimate the parameters. It also does not accommodate additional covariates, which explain the unknown factors, even if they are available. In particular, a few aggregated macroeconomic variables can be used as…