Additive logistic regression: a statistical view of boosting (With discussion and a rejoinder by the authors)
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Boosting is one of the most important recent developments in classification methodology. Boosting works by sequentially applying a classification algorithm to reweighted versions of the training data and then taking a weighted majority vote of the sequence of classifiers thus produced. For many classification algorithms, this simple strategy results in dramatic improvements in performance. We show that this seemingly mysterious phenomenon can be understood in terms of well-known statistical principles, namely additive modeling and maximum likelihood. For the two-class problem, boosting can be viewed as an approximation to additive modeling on the logistic scale using maximum Bernoulli likelihood as a criterion. We develop more direct approximations and show that they exhibit nearly identical results to boosting. Direct multiclass generalizations based on multinomial likelihood are derived that exhibit performance comparable to other recently proposed multiclass generalizations of boosting in most situations, and far superior in some. We suggest a minor modification to boosting that can reduce computation, often by factors of 10 to 50. Finally, we apply these insights to produce an alternative formulation of boosting decision trees. This approach, based on best-first truncated tree induction, often leads to better performance, and can provide interpretable descriptions of the aggregate decision rule. It is also much faster computationally, making it more suitable to large-scale data mining applications.
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
TMLE 与 AIPW 中样本分割选择何时重要:交叉拟合、目标化与重复
Variants of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) and augmented inverse-probability weighting (AIPW) with machine-learning nuisance models differ in which observations train them, how bias is corrected, and whether splits are repeated. In known-truth simulations of a binary-outcome average treatment effect, eight headline estimators shared each setting's library, inner folds and truncation bound; coverage differences were judged against a prespecified…
极端分位数回归加权最大似然估计量的存在性与一致性
Estimating extreme conditional quantiles faces two major challenges: understanding complex nonlinear relationships between variables and accurately extrapolating into the tails of the distribution, where data are sparse. To address both issues, we introduce a novel approach that combines the theoretical framework of block maxima with the predictive power of generalized random forests. The conditional distribution of maxima is modeled by a generalized extreme value (GEV)…
正则非光滑模型的归一化最大似然:测度论基础与几何采样
The Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) codelength, or stochastic complexity, represents a principled criterion for universal coding. While recent coarea-based formulations provided a calculation method for smooth models, this framework collapses for the non-smooth estimators ubiquitous in modern machine learning (e.g., Lasso, Sparse SVMs). In this work, we provide a rigorous framework for computing the NML for regular path-differentiable Lipschitz (PDL) estimators. By…
风险比较定理及其在扩散系数深度学习中的应用
We investigate the nonparametric estimation of the diffusion matrix in stochastic differential equations featuring multidimensional, strong mixing covariate processes. We propose a flexible statistical framework based on general function classes that does not require a linear basis representation, rendering our results directly applicable to deep neural network estimators. Our approach employs a two-step estimation procedure: constructing a preliminary nonparametric…
通过等变神经网络实现相关误差离散选择模型的摊销推断
Discrete choice models are fundamental tools in management science, economics, and marketing for understanding and predicting decision-making. Logit-based models are dominant in applied work, largely due to their convenient closed-form expressions for choice probabilities. However, they impose restrictive assumptions on the stochastic utility component, constraining our ability to capture realistic substitution patterns. We propose an amortized inference approach that relies…