Decompositions of dependence for high-dimensional extremes
高维极值依赖的分解AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要直接研究高维尾部依赖并应用于金融收益数据,与金融尾部风险方向相关。
高维极值依赖的分解AI 解读 ↓
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Summary We propose two decompositions that help to summarize and describe high-dimensional tail dependence within the framework of regular variation. We use a transformation to define a vector space on the positive orthant and show that transformed-linear operations applied to regularly-varying random vectors preserve regular variation. We summarize tail dependence via a matrix of pairwise tail dependence metrics that is positive semidefinite; eigendecomposition allows one to interpret tail dependence in terms of the resulting eigenbasis. This matrix is completely positive, and one can easily construct regularly-varying random vectors that share the same pairwise tail dependencies. We illustrate our methods with Swiss rainfall and financial returns data.
相关矩阵的平衡参数化
We introduce the balanced correlation parametrization (BCP), which maps positive-definite correlation matrices one-to-one onto the set of symmetric hollow matrices. A key feature of the parametrization is that both the transformation and its inverse are available in closed form. It combines marginal and partial correlations, is inverse-consistent and equivariant under variable permutations and sign changes, and preserves block structure. A novel property of BCP is that it…
极端分位数回归加权最大似然估计量的存在性与一致性
Estimating extreme conditional quantiles faces two major challenges: understanding complex nonlinear relationships between variables and accurately extrapolating into the tails of the distribution, where data are sparse. To address both issues, we introduce a novel approach that combines the theoretical framework of block maxima with the predictive power of generalized random forests. The conditional distribution of maxima is modeled by a generalized extreme value (GEV)…
用收缩先验建模动态相关矩阵
Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional difficulty is summarizing the estimated evolving dependence structure for downstream decision-making tasks. We propose a Bayesian approach based on a low-rank factor representation, with latent states evolving under a dynamic shrinkage…
Hüsler–Reiss 块模型的统计推断
Estimating the H{ü}sler-Reiss precision matrix is a fundamental problem for statistical inference in multivariate extremes. In high-dimensional settings, the number of unknown parameters grows quadratically with the dimension, making regularisation indispensable. Existing approaches regularise the estimation problem by exploiting sparsity. In this paper, we consider an alternative structural assumption, namely that the H{ü}sler-Reiss precision matrix is block-structured. To…
利用市场信息网络建模并评估金融极端事件预测
Modeling the joint distribution of extreme values in high-dimensional financial time series is challenging because extremes are sparse and locally extreme observations are not necessarily extreme relative to their full marginal distribution. To address this, we introduce a time-dependent network Hüsler-Reiss model in which market-informed adjacency matrices determine how strongly observations contribute to the estimation. We propose binary and weighted specifications,…
用于企业生存预测的高维删失 MIDAS 逻辑回归
This paper addresses the challenge of forecasting corporate distress, a problem marked by three key statistical hurdles: (i) right censoring, (ii) high-dimensional predictors, and (iii) mixed-frequency data. To overcome these complexities, we introduce a novel high-dimensional censored MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) logistic regression. Our approach handles censoring through inverse probability weighting and achieves accurate estimation with numerous mixed-frequency predictors…