Misspecification and Weak Identification in Asset Pricing
资产定价中的模型误设与弱识别AI 解读 ↓
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资产定价中的模型误设与弱识别AI 解读 ↓
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The widespread co-existence of misspecification and weak identification in asset pricing has led to an overstated performance of risk factors. Because the conventional Fama and MacBeth (1973) methodology is jeopardized by misspecification and weak identification, we infer risk premia by using a double robust Lagrange multiplier test that remains reliable in the presence of these two empirically relevant issues. Moreover, we show how the identification, and the resulting appropriate interpretation, of the risk premia is governed by the relative magnitudes of the misspecification J-statistic and the identification IS-statistic. We revisit several prominent empirical applications and all specifications with one to six factors from the factor zoo of Feng, Giglio, and Xiu (2020) to emphasize the widespread occurrence of misspecification and weak identification.
多因子资产定价模型中识别稳健的同时推断
This paper proposes exact identification-robust confidence sets for the zero-beta rate and ex-post factor prices in asset pricing models. Exploiting the information from the cross-sectional intercept allows us to impose or formally test model-consistent restrictions, including those resulting from traded factors in excess of the zero beta-rate or from return spreads. Analytical projection-based solutions for confidence set outcomes are developed. The proposed procedures are…
期限结构模型中风险溢价的识别稳健推断
We propose identification robust statistics for testing hypotheses on the risk premia in dynamic affine term structure models. We do so using the moment equation specification proposed in Adrian et al. (2013). Statistical inference based on their three-stage estimator requires knowledge of the risk factors’ quality and can be misleading when the β’s are weak, which results when sampling errors are of comparable order of magnitude as the risk factor loadings. We extend the…
期限结构模型风险溢价的识别稳健推断
We propose identification robust statistics for testing hypotheses on the risk premia in dynamic affine term structure models. We do so using the moment equation specification proposed for these models in Adrian et al. (2013). We extend the subset (factor) Anderson-Rubin test from Guggenberger et al. (2012) to models with multiple dynamic factors and time-varying risk prices. Unlike projection-based tests, it provides a computationally tractable manner to conduct…
识别稳健的贝塔定价、张成检验、模拟组合与巨灾债券基准中性
This paper proposes inference strategies for conditional and unconditional asset pricing models, which cover beta pricing, the zero-beta rate, risk prices, Jensen’s alphas, mean–variance spanning and intersection. We derive analytical conditions that link the identification of the zero-beta rate to spanning. Following finite-sample statistical considerations, the proposed procedures correct for measurement error with mimicking portfolios, and are invariant to fund repacking…
连续更新 GMM 的双重稳健推断
We propose the double robust Lagrange multiplier (DRLM) statistic for testing hypotheses specified on the pseudo-true value of the structural parameters in the generalized method of moments. The pseudo-true value is defined as the minimizer of the population continuous updating objective function and equals the true value of the structural parameter in the absence of misspecification.\nocite{hhy96} The (bounding) chi-squared limiting distribution of the DRLM statistic is…
强、半强及潜在因子下线性资产定价模型的 alpha 识别与利用
The risk premia of traded factors are the sum of factor means and a parameter vector we denote by φ which is identified from the cross section regression of alpha of individual securities on the vector of factor loadings. If phi is non-zero one can construct "phi-portfolios" which exploit the systematic components of non-zero alpha. We show that for known values of betas and when phi is non-zero there exist phi-portfolios that dominate mean-variance portfolios. The paper…