Balancing Weights for Causal Inference in Observational Factorial Studies
观察性析因研究中用于因果推断的平衡权重AI 解读 ↓
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观察性析因研究中用于因果推断的平衡权重AI 解读 ↓
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Many scientific questions in biomedical, environmental, and psychological research involve understanding the effects of multiple factors on outcomes. While factorial experiments are ideal for this purpose, randomized controlled treatment assignment is generally infeasible in many empirical studies. Therefore, investigators must rely on observational data, where drawing reliable causal inferences for multiple factors remains challenging. As the number of treatment combinations grows exponentially with the number of factors, some treatment combinations can be rare or missing by chance in observed data, further complicating factorial effects estimation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel weighting method tailored to observational studies with multiple factors. Our approach uses weighted observational data to emulate a randomized factorial experiment, enabling simultaneous estimation of the effects of multiple factors and their interactions. Our investigations reveal a crucial nuance: achieving balance among covariates, as in single-factor scenarios, is necessary but insufficient for unbiasedly estimating factorial effects; balancing the factors is also essential in multi-factor settings. Moreover, we extend our weighting method to handle missing treatment combinations in observed data. Finally, we study the asymptotic behavior of the new weighting estimators and propose a consistent variance estimator, providing reliable inferences on factorial effects in observational studies.
Two frequent approaches for identifying structural VARs are external instruments, which carry economic content but are often weak, and non-Gaussianity of the shocks, which provides statistical identification but carries no economic meaning. We combine the two strategies in a single generalized method of moments framework. This hybrid approach point-identifies the target shocks while also identifying the non-target shocks up to sign and ordering. Under suitable rank…
The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated in clinical studies to refute a homogeneous treatment effect hypothesis. Under this regime, all patients making up the population experience identical benefit from a given treatment relative to a comparator. Uncovering heterogeneous treatment effects through inference about the CATE, however, requires that covariates truly modifying the treatment effect be reliably collected at baseline. CATE-based…
内生性检验:一种基于矩的贝叶斯方法
A standard assumption in the Bayesian estimation of linear regression models is that the regressors are exogenous in the sense that they are uncorrelated with the model error term. In practice, however, this assumption can be invalid. In this article, using the exponentially tilted empirical likelihood (ETEL) framework, we develop a Bayes factor test for endogeneity that compares a base model that is correctly specified under exogeneity but misspecified under endogeneity…
We study difference-in-differences designs in which all units are initially untreated and later receive heterogeneous, strictly positive treatment doses. When quasi-untreated units receive doses close to zero, a difference-in-difference estimand using those units as the control group identifies a weighted average treatment effect per unit of treatment, under a parallel-trends assumption. We develop a nonparametric estimator and bias-corrected confidence intervals for this…
伪面板事件研究:可信应用的计量经济学基础
Event studies with panel data are widely used to estimate treatment effects. With repeated cross-sections, future treatment dates are unobserved for untreated individuals. Pseudo-panel event studies impute pre-treatment outcomes of the treated using matched untreated individuals. This paper establishes identification in such designs and characterizes bias when identification conditions fail. I show that the pseudo-panel regression is equivalent to weighted least squares with…
自适应实验中策略改进价值的推断
In this paper, we develop an asymptotically normal estimator for the value of policy improvement (VPI) under adaptively collected data. This value, which is defined as the gap between the value of the best treatment policy in a class and that of a baseline policy, gauges whether or not it is worth deploying a personalized treatment policy. Building an estimator for the VPI is naturally more difficult than estimating the value of a fixed policy. This is because, in addition…