Clustered network connectedness: A new measurement framework with application to global equity markets
分簇网络连通性:测度框架及全球股票市场应用AI 解读 ↓
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分簇网络连通性:测度框架及全球股票市场应用AI 解读 ↓
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Network connections, both across and within markets, are central in countless economic contexts. In recent decades, a large literature has developed and applied flexible methods for measuring network connectedness and its evolution, based on variance decompositions from vector autoregressions (VARs), as in Diebold and Yilmaz (2014). Those VARs are, however, typically identified using full orthogonalization (Sims, 1980), or no orthogonalization (Koop et al., 1996; Pesaran and Shin, 1998), which, although useful, are special and extreme cases of a more general framework that we develop in this paper. In particular, we allow network nodes to be connected in “clusters”, such as asset classes, industries, regions, etc., where shocks are orthogonal across clusters (Sims style orthogonalized identification) but correlated within clusters (Koop-Pesaran-Potter-Shin style generalized identification), so that the ordering of network nodes is relevant across clusters but irrelevant within clusters. After developing the clustered connectedness framework, we apply it in a detailed empirical exploration of sixteen country equity markets spanning three global regions.
Comparing dependence structures between two related multivariate time series is of fundamental interest in many scientific applications, where changes may occur in both directed temporal interactions and contemporaneous connectivity. Modeling each time series by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we propose a new framework for estimation and inference of differential Granger causality (DiffGC) and differential network (DiffNet) structures in high dimensions. The proposed…
结构VAR与金融网络:空间建模的最小距离方法
Summary In this paper, I interpret a time series spatial model (T‐SAR) as a constrained structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Based on these restrictions, I propose a minimum distance approach to estimate the (row‐standardized) network matrix and the overall network influence parameter of the T‐SAR from the SVAR estimates. I also develop a Wald‐type test to assess the distance between these two models. To implement the methodology, I discuss machine learning methods…
网络中的动态创新传导:理论、大 T 推断与滞后投入产出转换下的商业周期
I develop an econometric framework that rationalizes the dynamics of a cross-sectional variable by lagged transmissions of innovations along bilateral links between units. While nesting the Spatial Autoregression and Spatial Error Model as limits and producing equivalent impulse-responses in the long run, the Network-Vector-Autoregression (NVAR) I propose can accommodate general transmission patterns over time and yields "networked" transition dynamics distinct from those…
含影响节点与社群的高维分位数向量自回归
Quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models offer enhanced capabilities over vector autoregression (VAR) models in analyzing asymmetric interactions within multiple time series and are widely used in many areas, including finance and economics. However, in scenarios involving high-dimensional data where the number of time series N exceeds the length of the time series T, both parameter estimation and the theoretical establishment present significant challenges. Notably,…
以大型因子增广 VAR 分析企业上下游与共同冲击
ABSTRACT We evaluate the roles of upstream (supplier‐to‐user), downstream (user‐to‐supplier), and common factor shock transmission across firms by deriving interfirm networks and common factors from US equities over 1989–2017. We overcome the econometric challenges of estimating the large factor‐augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) system by developing two alternative approaches: one prioritizing computational efficiency and the other providing the full posterior…
美国银行间流动性风险网络的情景分位数连通性
We characterize the U.S. interbank liquidity risk network based on a supervisory dataset, using a scenario-based quantile network connectedness approach. In terms of methodology, we consider a quantile vector autoregressive model with unobserved heterogeneity and propose a Bayesian nuclear norm estimation method. A common factor structure is employed to deal with unobserved heterogeneity that may exhibit endogeneity within the network. Then we develop a scenario-based…