A Lower Bound on the Error in Nonparametric Regression Type Problems
非参数回归类问题中的估计误差下界AI 解读 ↓
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非参数回归类问题中的估计误差下界AI 解读 ↓
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Let $(X_1, Y_1), \cdots, (X_n, Y_n)$ be a sample, denote the conditional density of $Y_i\mid X_i = x_i$ as $f(y\mid x_i, \theta(x_i))$ and $\theta$ an element of a metric space $(\Theta, d)$. A lower bound is provided for the $d$-error in estimating $\theta$. The order of the bound depends on the local behavior of the Kullback information of the conditional density. As an application, we consider the case where $\Theta$ is the space of $q$-smooth functions on $\lbrack 0, 1 \rbrack^d$ metrized with the $L_r$ distance, $1 \leq r < \infty$.
We develop a semiparametric continuous time inferential framework for testing cumulative treatment effects, including both immediate and carryover effects. The latent state process is modeled by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose drift depends on state and treatment, while the observed data are noisy measurements of this latent state at irregular, multi resolution time points. We define the average treatment effect (ATE) as the difference of expected cumulative…
当处理发生溢出:时空因果效应估计的神经网络框架
Real-world public health policies are often enacted by local jurisdictions, but their effects can ripple through connected populations. For causal evaluation, this creates a difficult spatiotemporal problem: intermittent policy updates create path-level treatments, and because spillover depends on neighboring treatment paths along with the focal-unit's own history, controlling time-varying confounding requires high-dimensional, multimodal information from both sources. To…
时空干扰下用于实验的聚类切换设计
We consider experimentation in the presence of non-stationarity, inter-unit (spatial) interference, and carry-over effects (temporal interference), where we wish to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE), the difference between average outcomes having exposed all units at all times to treatment or to control. We suppose spatial interference is described by a graph, where a unit's outcome depends on its neighborhood's treatments, and that temporal interference is…
We study inference for continuous linear functionals of solutions to ill-posed inverse problems, including Euclidean parameters arising in nonparametric instrumental variables, proximal causal inference, and shadow-variable models. Although pointwise root-$n$ inference is possible under standard conditions, we show that this need not translate into locally reliable inference. Under a model imposing only minimal regularity conditions, the target is Hellinger discontinuous…
Motivation: Mediation analysis is an important tool for elucidating causal mechanisms in biomedical research and has recently gained increasing attention in microbiome studies. Motivated by a microbiome study of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients, we investigate whether the effect of induction chemotherapy intensity on infection status is mediated through gut microbial taxa. This problem poses substantial methodological challenges due to the high dimensionality, zero…
This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…