Design of egocentric network-based studies to estimate causal effects under interference
干扰条件下估计因果效应的自我中心网络研究设计AI 解读 ↓
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干扰条件下估计因果效应的自我中心网络研究设计AI 解读 ↓
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Many public health interventions are conducted in settings where individuals are connected to one another and the intervention assigned to randomly selected individuals may spill over to other individuals they are connected to. In these spillover settings, the effects of such interventions can be quantified in several ways. The average individual effect measures the intervention effect among those directly treated, while the spillover effect measures the effect among those connected to those directly treated. In addition, the overall effect measures the average intervention effect across the study population, over those directly treated along with those to whom the intervention spills over but who are not directly treated. Here, we develop methods for study design with the aim of estimating individual, spillover, and overall effects. In particular, we consider an egocentric network-based randomized design in which a set of index participants is recruited from the population and randomly assigned to treatment, while data are also collected from their untreated network members. We use the potential outcomes framework to define two clustered regression modeling approaches and clarify the underlying assumptions required to identify and estimate causal effects. We then develop sample size formulas for detecting individual, spillover, and overall effects. We investigate the roles of the intra-class correlation coefficient and the probability of treatment allocation on the required number of egocentric networks with a fixed number of network members for each egocentric network and vice-versa.
当处理发生溢出:时空因果效应估计的神经网络框架
Real-world public health policies are often enacted by local jurisdictions, but their effects can ripple through connected populations. For causal evaluation, this creates a difficult spatiotemporal problem: intermittent policy updates create path-level treatments, and because spillover depends on neighboring treatment paths along with the focal-unit's own history, controlling time-varying confounding requires high-dimensional, multimodal information from both sources. To…
时空干扰下用于实验的聚类切换设计
We consider experimentation in the presence of non-stationarity, inter-unit (spatial) interference, and carry-over effects (temporal interference), where we wish to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE), the difference between average outcomes having exposed all units at all times to treatment or to control. We suppose spatial interference is described by a graph, where a unit's outcome depends on its neighborhood's treatments, and that temporal interference is…
社会网络数据中处理效应的识别与估计:当社会连接存在混杂时
In observational network data, the adoption of a treatment and the formation of social ties often depend on the same characteristics that affect outcomes. We propose a generalized propensity score for each unit's effective treatment, built from a model for treatment assignment and a dyadic model for network formation, which may include latent node heterogeneity. The score is marginalized over the network given covariates rather than conditioned on the realized network, and…
复杂(准)实验设计下的简单标准误
We develop standard errors for estimates of causal effects in settings where the distribution of treatment exposures is known but potentially exhibits complicated dependence patterns across units. Such dependence arises, for example, in settings with spillovers/interference across units or when the treatment assignment is spatially correlated. Our variance estimator generalizes several properties of the Neyman variance estimator for completely randomized experiments to…
边处理与节点结果的网络实验
We present a methodology for analyzing node-level outcomes while experimenting with edge-level treatments in a population connected by an undirected graph. Under our design, nodes are randomly assigned to test or control, and each edge inherits the treatment of its endpoints, with conflicts resolved by randomization. We use each node's assigned status as an instrument for its treatment exposure. We show that the Wald estimator is consistent for the global average treatment…
Comparing dependence structures between two related multivariate time series is of fundamental interest in many scientific applications, where changes may occur in both directed temporal interactions and contemporaneous connectivity. Modeling each time series by a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we propose a new framework for estimation and inference of differential Granger causality (DiffGC) and differential network (DiffNet) structures in high dimensions. The proposed…