Smoothing Spline Density Estimation: Theory
平滑样条密度估计:理论AI 解读 ↓
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平滑样条密度估计:理论AI 解读 ↓
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In this article, a class of penalized likelihood probability density estimators is proposed and studied. The true log density is assumed to be a member of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space on a finite domain, not necessarily univariate, and the estimator is defined as the unique unconstrained minimizer of a penalized log likelihood functional in such a space. Under mild conditions, the existence of the estimator and the rate of convergence of the estimator in terms of the symmetrized Kullback-Leibler distance are established. To make the procedure applicable, a semiparametric approximation of the estimator is presented, which sits in an adaptive finite dimensional function space and hence can be computed in principle. The theory is developed in a generic setup and the proofs are largely elementary. Algorithms are yet to follow.
连接局部与总体因果效应:近端工具变量方法
Instrumental variable (IV) methods address treatment endogeneity, but with non-compliance and heterogeneous treatment effects a binary instrument generally identifies the local average treatment effect (LATE) among compliers rather than the population average treatment effect (ATE). When treatment effects and compliance probabilities are heterogeneous and dependent through latent factors, the ATE need not be identified by IV variation alone. We develop a proximal…
通过 Riesz 校准最优传输将随机试验效应迁移至现实人群
Randomized trials support causal inference, but differences between trial and target populations can limit the transportability of treatment effects to real-world settings. Many existing approaches model the propensity of trial participation and can therefore be sensitive to model misspecification and weak overlap of the covariate distributions. Optimal Transport (OT) offers a different route by comparing the trial and target populations directly in covariate space. We…
使用 mgcv 估计半参数与非参数固定效应面板模型
This paper provides a practical guide to estimating semiparametric and nonparametric fixed-effects panel data models using the mgcv package in R. The focus is implementation: handling fixed effects with unit indicators, first differencing, or penalized unit effects; specifying smooth terms; and conducting cluster-robust inference. Monte Carlo experiments compare \code{mgcv::bam} estimators with linear and fixed-series spline estimators. Simulations suggest that penalized…
基于机器学习的去偏 U 统计量
We propose a method to debias estimators based on U-statistics with machine-learning (ML) first steps. Standard plug-in estimators often suffer from regularization and model-selection biases, leading to invalid inference. We characterize orthogonal adjustment terms for two-step U-statistics, construct Debiased Machine Learning (DML) U-estimators, develop a cross-fitting algorithm, and establish a general asymptotic theory for inference with ML first steps. We illustrate the…
高阶有效估计量:综述与模拟基准研究
Higher-order efficient estimators extend standard first-order semiparametric estimators by replacing second-order residuals with third- or higher-order terms, potentially enabling asymptotic efficiency under slower nuisance function convergence rates and improving finite-sample performance. Existing methods achieve higher-order expansions through structurally different approximation strategies, including basis truncation, kernel smoothing, and highly adaptive lasso (HAL)…
条件边际效应估计的实用指南:现代方法
This Element offers a practical guide to estimating conditional marginal effects-how treatment effects vary with a moderating variable-using modern statistical methods. Commonly used approaches, such as linear interaction models, often suffer from unclarified estimands, limited overlap, and restrictive functional forms. This guide begins by clearly defining the estimand and presenting the main identification results. It then reviews and improves upon existing solutions, such…