Three-stage semi-parametric inference: Control variables and differentiability
三阶段半参数推断:控制变量与可微性AI 解读 ↓
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三阶段半参数推断:控制变量与可微性AI 解读 ↓
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We show the usefulness of the path-derivative calculations that were introduced in econometrics by Newey (1994) for multi-step semi-parametric estimators. These estimators estimate a finite-dimensional parameter using moment conditions that depend on nonparametric regressions on observed and estimated regressors that are estimated in the second and first step of the estimation procedure, respectively. Our earlier paper showed that Newey’s calculations can be extended to three-step estimators. In the current paper we consider the control variable (CV) estimator and related statistics in semi-parametric econometric models with non-separable errors and regressors that are correlated with these errors. Non-separable econometric models with endogenous regressors are often identified by average moment restrictions that average over control variables, and these control variables are estimated in a first stage by (non)parametric regression. We study aspects of inference for such estimators where we focus on a finite-dimensional parameter vector or statistic. The asymptotic distribution and a closed-form expression for the asymptotic variance of the CV estimator were not available until now. Our path derivative calculations are much simpler than the derivation of the asymptotic distribution by a stochastic expansion that is particularly complicated for multi-step semi-parametric estimators. We also consider just- and overidentification of the parameters and we propose a diagnostic test for overidentifying restrictions in models with non-separable errors and endogenous regressors. Finally, the path-derivative calculation breaks down if the moment condition is not differentiable. In an example we show that non-differentiability is associated with irregular behavior of the estimator.
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The random-coefficient demand model of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) is commonly estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), using an unconditional moment restriction with a fixed set of instruments. Identification of the model, however, rests on a conditional moment restriction. The two are not equivalent: the unconditional restriction may admit additional parameter values. We construct a counterexample in which the model is identified by the conditional…
Napkin 因果图下的因果推断
Unmeasured confounding can render identification strategies based on adjustment functionals invalid. We study the "Napkin" graph, a causal structure that encapsulates features of M-bias, instrumental variables, and classical back-door and front-door settings, yet identifies the average treatment effect through a nonstandard ratio of two g-formulas. We develop influence-function-based estimators for this functional, including doubly-robust one-step and targeted minimum…
半参数局部投影
We propose a semiparametric local projection estimator of nonlinear impulse response functions for a broad class of structural dynamic models relevant for applied macroeconomics, including models with nonlinearly transformed regressors, state dependent coefficients, and nonlinear interactions between shocks and state variables. The estimator is based on a doubly robust moment condition that identifies the average response function as a linear functional of a nonparametric…
基于机器学习的去偏 U 统计量
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非参数工具变量估计泛函推断的惩罚 GMM 框架
This paper develops a penalized GMM (PGMM) framework for automatic debiased inference on functionals of nonparametric instrumental variable estimators. We derive convergence rates for the PGMM estimator and provide conditions for root-n consistency and asymptotic normality of debiased functional estimates, covering both linear and nonlinear functionals. Monte Carlo experiments on average derivative show that the PGMM-based debiased estimator performs on par with the…
利用大量弱交互矩的构造性工具变量识别与推断
Instrumental variable methods are widely used for causal inference, but identification becomes especially challenging when instruments are weak and potentially invalid. These challenges are particularly pronounced in Mendelian randomization, where genetic variants serve as instruments and violations of exclusion restriction or independence assumptions are common. We propose MAGIC, a constructive and assumption-lean framework that achieves identification even when all…