Correlation Curves: Measures of Association as Functions of Covariate Values
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For experiments where the strength of association between a response variable $Y$ and a covariate $X$ is different over different regions of values for the covariate $X$, we propose local nonparametric dependence functions which measure the strength of association between $Y$ and $X$ as a function of $X = x$. Our dependence functions are extensions of Galton's idea of strength of co-relation from the bivariate normal case to the nonparametric case. In particular, a dependence function is obtained by expressing the usual Galton-Pearson correlation coefficient in terms of the regression line slope $\beta$ and the residual variance $\sigma^2$ and then replacing $\beta$ and $\sigma^2$ by a nonparametric regression slope $\beta(x)$ and a nonparametric residual variance $\sigma^2(x) = \operatorname{var}(Y \mid x)$, respectively. Our local dependence functions are standardized nonparametric regression curves which provide universal scale-free measures of the strength of the relationship between variables in nonlinear models. They share most of the properties of the correlation coefficient and they reduce to the usual correlation coefficient in the bivariate normal case. For this reason we call them correlation curves. We show that, in a certain sense, they quantify Lehmann's notion of regression dependence. Finally, the correlation curve concept is illustrated using data from a study of the relationship between cholesterol levels $x$ and triglyceride concentrations $y$ of heart patients.
We develop a semiparametric continuous time inferential framework for testing cumulative treatment effects, including both immediate and carryover effects. The latent state process is modeled by an ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose drift depends on state and treatment, while the observed data are noisy measurements of this latent state at irregular, multi resolution time points. We define the average treatment effect (ATE) as the difference of expected cumulative…
当处理发生溢出:时空因果效应估计的神经网络框架
Real-world public health policies are often enacted by local jurisdictions, but their effects can ripple through connected populations. For causal evaluation, this creates a difficult spatiotemporal problem: intermittent policy updates create path-level treatments, and because spillover depends on neighboring treatment paths along with the focal-unit's own history, controlling time-varying confounding requires high-dimensional, multimodal information from both sources. To…
时空干扰下用于实验的聚类切换设计
We consider experimentation in the presence of non-stationarity, inter-unit (spatial) interference, and carry-over effects (temporal interference), where we wish to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE), the difference between average outcomes having exposed all units at all times to treatment or to control. We suppose spatial interference is described by a graph, where a unit's outcome depends on its neighborhood's treatments, and that temporal interference is…
We study inference for continuous linear functionals of solutions to ill-posed inverse problems, including Euclidean parameters arising in nonparametric instrumental variables, proximal causal inference, and shadow-variable models. Although pointwise root-$n$ inference is possible under standard conditions, we show that this need not translate into locally reliable inference. Under a model imposing only minimal regularity conditions, the target is Hellinger discontinuous…
Motivation: Mediation analysis is an important tool for elucidating causal mechanisms in biomedical research and has recently gained increasing attention in microbiome studies. Motivated by a microbiome study of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients, we investigate whether the effect of induction chemotherapy intensity on infection status is mediated through gut microbial taxa. This problem poses substantial methodological challenges due to the high dimensionality, zero…
This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…