ESTIMATION OF THE LONG-RUN AVERAGE RELATIONSHIP IN NONSTATIONARY PANEL TIME SERIES
非平稳面板时间序列长期平均关系的估计AI 解读 ↓
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非平稳面板时间序列长期平均关系的估计AI 解读 ↓
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This paper proposes a new class of estimators of the long-run average relationship in nonstationary panel time series. The estimators are based on the long-run average variance estimate using bandwidth equal to T. The new estimators include the pooled least squares estimator and the fixed effects estimator as special cases. It is shown that the new estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal under both the sequential limit, wherein T → ∞ followed by n → ∞, and the joint limit where T,n → ∞ simultaneously. The rate condition for the joint limit to hold is relaxed to , which is less restrictive than the rate condition n/T → 0, as imposed by Phillips and Moon (1999, Econometrica 67, 1057–1111). By exponentiating existing kernels, this paper introduces a new approach to generating kernels and shows that these exponentiated kernels can deliver more efficient estimates of the long-run average coefficient.I am grateful to Bruce Hansen, Peter Phillips, Zhijie Xiao, and three anonymous referees for constructive comments and suggestions. All errors are mine alone.
This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross‐sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This formula utilizes cross‐sectional information to transform the unit‐specific (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator into an approximation of the posterior mean under a prior distribution that…
Summary This paper studies the estimation of latent group structures in heterogeneous time-varying coefficient panel data models. While allowing the coefficient functions to vary over cross-sections provides a good way to model cross-sectional heterogeneity, it reduces the degree of freedom and leads to poor estimation accuracy when the time-series length is short. On the other hand, in a lot of empirical studies, it is not uncommon to find that heterogeneous coefficients…
无限阶自回归过程动态面板估计的渐近推断
In this paper we consider the estimation of a dynamic panel autoregressive (AR) process of possibly infinite order in the presence of individual effects. We employ double asymptotics under which both the cross-sectional sample size and the length of time series tend to infinity and utilize the sieve AR approximation with its lag order increasing with the sample size. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the fixed effects estimator and propose a…
非平稳面板的非参数秩检验
We develop a set of nonparametric rank tests for non-stationary panels based on multivariate variance ratios which use untruncated kernels. As such, the tests do not require the choice of tuning parameters associated with bandwidth or lag length and also do not require choices with respect to numbers of common factors. The tests allow for unrestricted cross-sectional dependence and dynamic heterogeneity among the units of the panel, provided simply that a joint functional…
This paper looks at unobserved components models and examines the implied weighting patterns for signal extraction. There are four main themes. The first concerns the implications of correlated disturbances driving the components, especially those cases in which the correlation is perfect. The second is about the way in which ARIMA-based methods for trend extraction relate to those based on unobserved components. The third explores the impact of heteroscedasticity and…
时空区域数据的贝叶斯建模与聚类:意大利失业率应用
Spatio-temporal areal data can be seen as a collection of time series which are spatially correlated according to a specific neighboring structure. Incorporating the temporal and spatial dimension into a statistical model poses challenges regarding the underlying theoretical framework as well as the implementation of efficient computational methods. We propose to include spatio-temporal random effects using a conditional autoregressive prior, where the temporal correlation…