Bayesian moment-based inference in a regression model with misclassification error
二元协变量误分类回归中的贝叶斯矩条件推断AI 解读 ↓
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二元协变量误分类回归中的贝叶斯矩条件推断AI 解读 ↓
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We present a Bayesian analysis of a regression model with a binary covariate that may have classification (measurement) error. Prior research demonstrates that the regression coefficient is only partially identified. We take a Bayesian approach which adds assumptions in the form of priors on the unknown misclassification probabilities. The approach is intermediate between the frequentist bounds of previous literature and strong assumptions which achieve point identification, and thus preferable in many settings. We present two simple algorithms to sample from the posterior distribution when the likelihood function is not fully parametric but only satisfies a set of moment restrictions. We focus on how varying amounts of information contained in a prior distribution on the misclassification probabilities change the posterior of the parameters of interest. While the priors add information to the model, they do not necessarily tighten the identified set. However, the information is sufficient to tighten Bayesian inferences. We also consider the case where the mismeasured binary regressor is endogenous. We illustrate the use of our Bayesian approach in a simulated data set and an empirical application investigating the association between narcotic pain reliever use and earnings.
识别集的蒙特卡洛置信集
It is generally difficult to know whether the parameters in nonlinear econometric models are point‐identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of the full parameter vector and of subvectors in models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moment equalities or inequalities. The CSs are based on level sets of “optimal” criterion functions (such as likelihoods, optimally‐weighted or…
测度线性表示模型中识别、计算与推断的对抗方法
We develop a framework for identification, computation, and inference in econometric models with a linear-in-measures representation. These models express maintained restrictions as moment conditions linear in the joint probability measure of observed and latent inputs, and map that measure linearly to the distribution of outputs, even with nonlinear outcome equations. We construct an adversarial discrepancy function whose zeros characterize the identified set for structural…
修正局部错设的 GMM:经验贝叶斯方法
Econometric models offer parsimonious but inexact approximations to data-generating processes. This paper studies the generalized method of moments (GMM) when exchangeable specification errors of order $n^{-1/2}$ contaminate the moment conditions. I develop estimators for the mean and variance of these specification errors, establishing their consistency in an asymptotic framework where the number of overidentifying restrictions grows with the sample size. These…
准贝叶斯层次模型
We develop the Quasi-Bayesian Hierarchical Model (QBHM) for grouped GMM settings. The framework combines Bayesian hierarchical modelling with Laplace-type estimation: it preserves each group-specific objective function, while introducing a pooling term for economically comparable parameters. When the number of studies is fixed, the QBHM estimator-the quasi-posterior mean-has the same asymptotic distribution as GMM when estimating strongly identified study parameters. For…
正交化合成控制
When conducting inference for the average treatment effect on the treated with a Synthetic Control Estimator, the vector of control weights is a nuisance parameter that is often constrained, high-dimensional, and may be only partially identified even when the average treatment effect on the treated is point-identified. All three of these features of a nuisance parameter can lead to failure of asymptotic normality for the estimate of the parameter of interest when using…
通过正则化最优传输推断部分识别矩模型
Many statistical and econometric problems involve parameters defined by moments of a joint distribution when only marginal distributions are observed, leading naturally to partial identification. We develop a methodology for identification, estimation, and inference in the corresponding partially identified GMM model. We characterize the sharp identified set for the parameter of interest via a support-function/optimal-transport (OT) representation. To estimate the identified…