Aggregate vs. disaggregate data analysis—a paradox in the estimation of a money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy
日本低利率政策下货币需求估计的总量与分项分析悖论AI 解读 ↓
← 返回论文列表与筛选
阅读说明
本页整理公开书目信息，不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成，未完成全文核验，可能有误；具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本，未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要；缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录，不合计多个记录；关联记录可能包含正式发表版本，不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零，引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配，同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列，再参考通用方法与发表日期。
分类依据与纠错
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要直接讨论货币需求的协整与单位根现象，并比较总量模型和微观方程产生的总量预测。
反馈分类问题
正在核对关联版本…
代码、数据与补充材料
正在核对对应版本的资源…
关注这篇论文的作者
日本低利率政策下货币需求估计的总量与分项分析悖论
- 研究问题
- 为何日本总量与分项货币需求数据给出相反的稳定性判断，微观异质性如何影响总量协整、预测和政策评价？
- 方法与思路
- 作者比较总量与分项数据，给出异质微观协整关系能够形成总量协整的充要条件，并用模拟考察条件违反后的表现。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称分项关系稳定且未显示流动性陷阱；忽略异质性可产生总量单位根现象，并使总量预测和政策评价失准。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对聚合协整条件、微观单位与异质性的定义、稳定性及流动性陷阱判据，以及预测比较的具体设计。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据所给 Crossref 摘要，充要条件、样本划分和政策评价方法未说明；结论的适用范围仍须结合全文判断。
原文摘要
Abstract We use Japanese aggregate and disaggregate money demand data to show that conflicting inferences can arise. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of a liquidity trap. Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a cointegrating relation among aggregate variables when heterogeneous cointegration relations among micro units exist. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when such conditions are violated, it is possible to observe stable micro relations, but unit root phenomena among macro variables. Moreover, the prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data, is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations, and policy evaluation based on aggregate data ignoring heterogeneity in micro units can be grossly misleading. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.