By-Product Data and Forecasting in Unemployment Insurance
失业保险业务附带数据与预测AI 解读 ↓
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失业保险业务附带数据与预测
- 研究问题
- 失业保险日常业务产生的周度、月度及地区行业统计，能够如何用于观察经济活动变化、研究商业周期并支持预测？
- 方法与思路
- 作者介绍各州失业保险机构在业务中收集的数据，强调其城市、县和细分行业覆盖，以及周度与月度统计的分析潜力。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要指出这些行政数据可为商业周期理论检验和经济变量关系研究提供材料，同时提示部分州公布的数据范围较为有限。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对具体指标、统计口径、地区行业覆盖和历史可获得性，并查看全文是否给出预测方法或商业周期分析的实际结果。
- 阅读边界
- 仅据 OpenAlex 索引摘要，稿件版本未注明；摘要主要介绍历史数据资源，未说明预测模型或检验结果，不能推断其当前可用性。
原文摘要
The unemployment insurance program has been operating in this country since the beginning of 1938. There have been many growing pains during these first eleven years. The operating problems involved in setting up this vast program have left little time thus far for careful consideration of the statistical data that are automatically produced in the course of its operations. These data, now and in the future, can be a fruitful source of information on changes in economic activities. The comprehensive nature of these data, covering every city and county, giving information by detailed sub-industry, and yielding statistics for each week and month, makes it possible to test various theories of the business cycle, and may, as a result of careful analysis, reveal interrelationships among economic variables that are now unsuspected. The data described in this paper are collected by all the state unemployment insurance agencies as part of their operations. However, some states publish only the statistics which are needed for administrative and operating purposes. Undoubtedly, more would be published if the existence of these valuable materials became generally known. * Presented at the 108th Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association in Cleveland, Ohio, December 27, 1948.