A NONPARAMETRIC GOODNESS-OF-FIT-BASED TEST FOR CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY
基于非参数拟合优度的条件异方差检验AI 解读 ↓
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基于非参数拟合优度的条件异方差检验AI 解读 ↓
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In this paper we propose a new nonparametric test for conditional heteroskedasticity based on a measure of nonparametric goodness-of-fit (R 2 ) that is obtained from the local polynomial regression of the residuals from a parametric regression on some covariates. We show that after being appropriately standardized, the nonparametric R 2 is asymptotically normally distributed under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also prove the consistency of the test and propose a bootstrap method to obtain the bootstrap p -values. We conduct a small set of simulations and compare our test with some popular parametric and nonparametric tests in the literature.
检测Copula结构变化的平滑检验方法
This paper develops novel smooth tests for structural changes in the innovation copula of multivariate dynamic models. We characterize deviations from copula constancy through a collection of generalized Fourier coefficients and test their joint significance. Under the null hypothesis, estimation of the dynamic parameters and the unknown marginals has no first-order estimation effect on the proposed statistics. Consequently, the feasible tests based on estimated residuals…
通过条件中心化进行非线性 Granger 因果的 RKHS 推断
Granger causality is commonly formulated through linear prediction in vector autoregressive models, limiting its ability to detect nonlinear predictive relationships. We propose a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS)-based test for nonlinear Granger non-causality in conditional mean for nonlinear autoregressive processes. The key idea is a conditional-centering decomposition of the target regression function into an own-history component and an orthogonal component…
递归非线性脉冲响应函数的无带宽推断
Recursive nonlinear impulse responses require an estimated innovation law whenever the impact shock is normalized by innovation ranks and future innovations are integrated out. The closest semiparametric recursive construction in the literature estimates the relevant innovation quantile functions smoothly and discusses a direct empirical-residual implementation without developing its complete first-order inference theory. We tackle this gap in a finite-dimensional nonlinear…
通过预过滤筛式自助法校正函数型时间序列长记忆估计偏差
We investigate a bias correction procedure based on sieve bootstrapping to estimate the long-memory parameter d in stationary or nonstationary fractionally integrated processes. The resampling method implements a sieve bootstrap method on data prefiltered by a preliminary estimate of the long-memory parameter. For the initial estimate, we recommend the local polynomial Whittle with noise (LPWN) estimator in Frederiksen et al. (2012) to reduce bias, especially in the presence…
尾部局部高斯相关:样本稀缺诊断、最优局部带宽与适应性的边界
Local Gaussian correlation (LGC) measures dependence locally, making it a natural tool for tail dependence and financial contagion, but its estimates degrade in the joint tails, where they are most needed. Location-adaptive bandwidths have been tried for LGC and found inferior to a single global bandwidth; we explain why, and map the regime in which adaptivity does help. First, a diagnostic: across heavy-tailed data-generating processes the parametric marginal pre-transform…
局部投影与VAR脉冲响应的估计量平均
Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but can be biased under misspecification. We propose an easy-to-implement estimator-averaging approach that combines LP and VAR at each horizon by minimizing the mean squared error of the impulse response itself, rather than in-sample fit. We…