Estimation of BLP models with high-dimensional controls
含高维控制变量的 BLP 模型估计AI 解读 ↓
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含高维控制变量的 BLP 模型估计AI 解读 ↓
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This study proposes a framework for estimating demand in differentiated product markets with high dimensional product characteristics, building upon the seminal Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) model, using market level data. We allow for a very large set of potential product characteristics, where the number of characteristics may exceed the number of market observations. Our contributions are twofold. First, we establish a general estimation theory for BLP models featuring high-dimensional nuisance parameters. We propose a Neyman orthogonal estimator specifically adapted to this framework, utilizing machine learning techniques, such as Lasso, to construct nuisance parameter estimators that are plugged into the Neyman orthogonal estimator. This approach offers a significant advantage: it achieves $\sqrt{T}$-asymptotic normality for parameters of interest--such as the price coefficient and price heterogeneity--even when nuisance parameters are estimated at slower rates due to their high dimensionality. Second, we apply this theory to a specialized BLP model under approximate sparsity, developing an estimation strategy for the high-dimensional nuisance parameters. The approximate sparsity condition posits that nuisance parameters can be controlled, up to a small approximation error, by a small and unknown subset of variables. In an economic context, this implies that while products have a vast array of characteristics, consumers focus on only a small subset of these due to bounded rationality. This condition makes the recovery of parameters of interest feasible by enabling nuisance parameter estimators to converge at the required rates. The practical performance of the method is evaluated through comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations, which demonstrate its efficacy in finite samples.
离散选择模型异质参数估计中的深度学习
This paper studies the finite sample performance of the flexible estimation approach of Farrell, Liang, and Misra (2021a), who propose to use deep learning for the estimation of heterogeneous parameters in economic models, in the context of discrete choice models. The approach combines the structure imposed by economic models with the flexibility of deep learning, which assures the interpretebility of results on the one hand, and allows estimating flexible functional forms…
离线逆强化学习与动态离散选择模型的经验风险最小化方法
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大规模需求估计的贝叶斯机器学习方法
This work studies how Bayesian machine learning methods can be used for large-scale demand estimation with many product categories. I compare two model classes, a latent factorization model and a mixed logit model and two Bayesian estimation approaches, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI). The analysis combines a simulation study with an application to supermarket scanner data. The results show that the latent factorization model benefits from…
扰动效用模型的 Fenchel–Young 估计量
Perturbed Utility Models (PUMs) represent discrete choice as utility maximization under convex perturbation or regularization, encompassing a broad class of choice models, including Multinomial Logit (MNL) and models that permit zero choice probabilities. Because, for general perturbations, maximum likelihood may be non-convex, and the negative log-likelihood is infinite when a sparse model assigns zero probability to an observed choice, we specialize the Fenchel--Young…
熵正则化最优传输下的部分识别
In many statistical settings, the available data and maintained assumptions do not suffice to uniquely identify the model parameters of interest. In such cases, one can only identify sets which are guaranteed to contain the true parameters. These are often characterized through linear programs that optimize over models compatible with the observed data. These programs can be infinite-dimensional in the optimizer and the number of constraints. We provide a unified way to…
从密集网格到有效推断:非参数随机系数模型的正则化偏差处理
This paper develops an inference procedure for average functionals of random-coefficient distributions, such as mean willingness-to-pay and average elasticities, when the distribution is estimated nonparametrically using the penalized fixed-grid estimator of Heiss, Hetzenecker, and Osterhaus (2022). We establish asymptotic normality of the corresponding penalized plug-in estimator centered at the functional evaluated at the penalized pseudo-true value and propose a…