SOFARI: High-Dimensional Manifold-Based Inference
SOFARI:基于流形的高维统计推断AI 解读 ↓
本页整理公开书目信息,不生成学术质量评分。AI 解读根据题名及所注明的摘要或原文片段生成,未完成全文核验,可能有误;具体假设、证明与结论请核对原文。摘要保留来源文本,未经模型改写。
DOI 首次登记不等于接收或发表日期。部分更正、评论等条目没有独立摘要;缺少可靠材料时保留待补状态。
引用量采用 OpenAlex 单条关联记录,不合计多个记录;关联记录可能包含正式发表版本,不等于此版本单独引用。缺失不视为零,引用指标不代表论文质量。
关注作者按书目中的完整姓名匹配,同名和姓名变体需人工辨别。相关论文先按共享细分方向和具体方法排列,再参考通用方法与发表日期。
AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要明确列出经济预测的真实数据应用,因此选择预测方向;未将一般潜在因子结构直接归为宏观因子模型。
SOFARI:基于流形的高维统计推断AI 解读 ↓
正在核对关联版本…
正在核对对应版本的资源…
Multi-task learning is a widely used technique for harnessing information from various tasks. Recently, the sparse orthogonal factor regression (SOFAR) framework, based on the sparse singular value decomposition (SVD) within the coefficient matrix, was introduced for interpretable multi-task learning, enabling the discovery of meaningful latent feature-response association networks across different layers. However, conducting precise inference on the latent factor matrices has remained challenging due to the orthogonality constraints inherited from the sparse SVD constraints. In this article, we suggest a novel approach called the high-dimensional manifold-based SOFAR inference (SOFARI), drawing on the Neyman near-orthogonality inference while incorporating the Stiefel manifold structure imposed by the SVD constraints. By leveraging the underlying Stiefel manifold structure that is crucial to enabling inference, SOFARI provides easy-to-use bias-corrected estimators for both latent left factor vectors and singular values, for which we show to enjoy the asymptotic mean-zero normal distributions with estimable variances. We introduce two SOFARI variants to handle strongly and weakly orthogonal latent factors, where the latter covers a broader range of applications. We illustrate the effectiveness of SOFARI and justify our theoretical results through simulation examples and a real data application in economic forecasting. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.
因子网络自回归
We propose a factor network autoregressive (FNAR) model for time series with complex network structures. The coefficients of the model reflect many different types of connections between economic agents (“multilayer network”), which are summarized into a smaller number of network matrices (“network factors”) through a novel tensor-based principal component approach. We provide consistency and asymptotic normality results for the estimation of the factors, their loadings, and…
高维低秩张量自回归时间序列建模
Modern technological advances have enabled an unprecedented amount of structured data with complex temporal dependence, urging the need for new methods to efficiently model and forecast high-dimensional tensor-valued time series. This paper provides a new modeling framework to accomplish this task via autoregression (AR). By considering a low-rank Tucker decomposition for the transition tensor, the proposed tensor AR can flexibly capture the underlying low-dimensional tensor…
高维低秩张量自回归时间序列建模
Modern technological advances have enabled an unprecedented amount of structured data with complex temporal dependence, urging the need for new methods to efficiently model and forecast high-dimensional tensor-valued time series. This paper provides a new modeling framework to accomplish this task via autoregression (AR). By considering a low-rank Tucker decomposition for the transition tensor, the proposed tensor AR can flexibly capture the underlying low-dimensional tensor…
利用图形 LASSO 在结构突变下组合预测
In this paper we develop a novel method of combining many forecasts based on a machine learning algorithm called Graphical LASSO (GL). We visualize forecast errors from different forecasters as a network of interacting entities and generalize network inference in the presence of common factor structure and structural breaks. First, we note that forecasters often use common information and hence make common mistakes, which makes the forecast errors exhibit common factor…
高维矩阵时间序列的马尔可夫转换动态矩阵因子模型
In this study, we propose a novel model called the Markov-switching dynamic matrix factor (Ms-DMF) model, which serves the dual purpose of structural interpretation and prediction for high-dimensional matrix time series. When estimating the parameters of the Ms-DMF model, an EM (expectation maximization) algorithm was used to get a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, where all the parameters are estimated jointly. A filtering and smoothing algorithm is used to compute the…
打开黑箱:新加坡 GDP 增长的即时预测与可解释性
Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth using a high-dimensional panel of approximately 70 indicators, encompassing economic and financial indicators over 1990Q1-2023Q2. The analysis covers penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction methods, ensemble learning algorithms, and…