Factor-based imputation of missing values and covariances in panel data of large dimensions
高维面板数据缺失值与协方差的因子插补AI 解读 ↓
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高维面板数据缺失值与协方差的因子插补AI 解读 ↓
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Economists are blessed with a wealth of data for analysis, but more often than not, values in some entries of the data matrix are missing. Various methods have been proposed to handle missing observations in a few variables. We exploit the factor structure in panel data of large dimensions. Our tall-project algorithm first estimates the factors from a tall block in which data for all rows are observed, and projections of unit specific sample size are then used to estimate the factor loadings. A missing value is imputed by its estimated common component which we show is consistent and asymptotically normal without further iteration. Implications for using imputed data in factor augmented regressions are then discussed. To compensate for the downward bias in sample covariance matrices created by an omitted noise in each imputed value, we overlay the imputed data with re-sampled idiosyncratic residuals many times and use the average of the covariances to estimate the parameters of interest. Simulations show that the procedures have desirable finite sample properties.
交互固定效应面板数据模型与(相对)小 T
This paper studies the estimation of a linear panel data model with interactive fixed effects. A transformation is introduced which, after having been applied, renders the least squares (LS) estimator of Bai (2009) consistent and asymptotically unbiased when n is large and T is fixed. This is termed the transformed least squares (TLS) estimator. Going further, these properties are shown to also carry over to the large n, large T setting, provided T /n → 0. This contrasts…
基于离散傅里叶变换检验交互固定效应面板模型的结构变化
We propose a discrete Fourier transform (DFT)-based test for detecting structural changes in panel data models with interactive fixed effects (IFE). When structural changes are present but ignored, the conventional asymptotic distribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of Bai (2009) may no longer provide reliable inference, and the resulting residuals contain signals of parameter instability. Our test exploits this feature by comparing the DFT of weighted residuals to…
因子增强的机器学习面板回归
This paper develops the asymptotic theory for high-dimensional panel data regressions in settings with cross-sectionally dependent errors driven by common shocks. We consider a factor-augmented sparse-group LASSO estimator that combines MIDAS aggregation with latent factors. The estimator can take advantage of the mixed-frequency group structure in the time-series dimension. Theory shows that it can outperform the standard LASSO estimator both for prediction and estimation…
利用因子模型进行因果推断
We develop a factor-model framework for causal inference in panels with policy interventions. Treatment effects are represented as structural changes in treated units' exposure to latent common shocks and, in extensions, changes in the factor process itself. The approach does not impose the standard parallel-trends restriction, accommodates one or many treated units, and targets systematic effects when unit-time idiosyncratic effects are not point identified. We provide…
面板数据的反事实预测
We address the challenge of forecasting counterfactual outcomes in a panel data with missing entries and temporally dependent latent factors -- a common scenario in causal inference, where estimating unobserved potential outcomes ahead of time is essential. We propose Forecasting Counterfactuals under Stochastic Dynamics (FOCUS), a method that extends traditional matrix completion methods by leveraging time series dynamics of the factors, thereby enhancing the prediction…
缺失数据下半参数因子模型的估计
We study semiparametric factor models in high-dimensional panels where the factor loadings consist of a nonparametric component explained by observed covariates and an idiosyncratic component capturing unobserved heterogeneity. A key challenge in empirical applications is the presence of missing observations, which can distort both factor recovery and loading estimation. To address this issue, we develop a projected principal component analysis (PPCA) procedure that…