Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium, and Low

原文摘要

Conventional population projections use “high,” “medium,” and “low” scenarios to indicate uncertainty, but probability interpretations are rarely given, and in any event the resulting ranges for vital rates, births, deaths, age groups sizes, age ratios, and population size cannot possibly be probabilistically consistent with one another. This article presents and implements a new method for making stochastic population forecasts that provide consistent probability intervals. We blend mathematical demography and statistical time series methods to estimate stochastic models of fertility and mortality based on U.S. data back to 1900 and then use the theory of random-matrix products to forecast various demographic measures and their associated probability intervals to the year 2065. Our expected total population sizes agree quite closely with the Census medium projections, and our 95 percent probability intervals are close to the Census high and low scenarios. But Census intervals in 2065 for ages 65+ are nearly three times as broad as ours, and for 85+ are nearly twice as broad. In contrast, our intervals for the total dependency and youth dependency ratios are more than twice as broad as theirs, and our ratio for the elderly dependency ratio is 12 times as great as theirs. These items have major implications for policy, and these contrasting indications of uncertainty clearly show the limitations of the conventional scenario-based methods.

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