Common Periodic Correlation Features and the Interaction of Stocks and Flows in Daily Airport Data
共同周期相关特征与机场日度数据中的存量和流量互动AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类:摘要直接讨论周期模型、可能的非平稳性与跨序列共同短期动态,并用日度机场数据展示,因此归入时间序列方向。
共同周期相关特征与机场日度数据中的存量和流量互动AI 解读 ↓
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We propose the multivariate representation of univariate and bivariate (possibly nonstationary) periodic models as a benchmark for the imposition of common periodic correlation (CPC) feature restrictions to obtain parameter parsimony. CPCs are short-run common dynamic features that co-vary across the different days of the week and possibly also across weeks and that can be common across different time series. We also show how periodic models can be used to describe interesting dynamic links in the interaction between stock and flow variables. We apply the proposed modeling framework to a dataset of daily arrivals and departures in airport transit data.
无需VaR预测的期望损失E-回测:时间序列模型下的方法
Expected Shortfall (ES) measures the average size of tail losses. Its sequential backtests typically also require a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast. We develop two e-backtesting methods using only observed losses and ES forecasts: one for iid losses only and the other for time series under an AR-GARCH conditional VaR structure. Under the stated assumptions, both control false rejections at any stopping time. For the time-series method, validity requires a fixed…
自适应 Lasso 解路径单位根检验的自助法改进
We propose sieve wild bootstrap analogues to the adaptive Lasso solution path unit root tests of Arnold and Reinschlüssel (2024) arXiv:2404.06205 to improve finite sample properties and extend their applicability to a generalised framework, allowing for non-stationary volatility. Numerical evidence shows the bootstrap to improve the tests' precision for error processes that promote spurious rejections of the unit root null, depending on the detrending procedure. The…
We show that the activation knot of a potentially non-stationary regressor on the adaptive Lasso solution path in autoregressions can be leveraged for selection-free inference about a unit root. The resulting test has asymptotic power against local alternatives in $1/T$ neighbourhoods, unlike post-selection inference methods based on consistent model selection. Exploiting the information enrichment principle devised by Reinschlüssel and Arnold (arXiv:2402.16580 [stat.ME]) to…
利用信息增强自适应 Lasso 选择平稳与非平稳自回归模型
We propose a novel approach to elicit the weight of a potentially non-stationary regressor in the consistent and oracle-efficient estimation of autoregressive models using the adaptive Lasso. The enhanced weight builds on a statistic that exploits distinct orders in probability of the OLS estimator in time series regressions when the degree of integration differs. We provide theoretical results on the benefit of our approach for detecting stationarity when a tuning criterion…
We study structural changes in multivariate time series by estimating and comparing stationary graphs of macroeconomic time series before and after an economic crisis, such as the Great Recession. Building on a latent time series framework called Orthogonally-rotated Univariate Time-series (OUT), we propose a shared-parameter framework-the spOUT autoregressive model (spOUTAR)-that jointly models two related multivariate time series and enables coherent Bayesian estimation of…
短程与长程相依下在线期望分位数估计的极限理论
Expectiles are tail-sensitive distributional summaries with important applications in financial risk measurement and forecasting, yet statistical theory for their online estimation from dependent data remains limited. We study a one-pass, stochastic-gradient algorithm with constant learning rate $γ$ for estimating the marginal expectile of a stationary causal process. The recursion admits a unique stationary causal solution and geometrically forgets its initialization. Under…