Multiscale blind source separation
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We provide a new methodology for statistical recovery of single linear mixtures of piecewise constant signals (sources) with unknown mixing weights and change points in a multiscale fashion. We show exact recovery within an $\varepsilon$-neighborhood of the mixture when the sources take only values in a known finite alphabet. Based on this we provide the SLAM (Separates Linear Alphabet Mixtures) estimators for the mixing weights and sources. For Gaussian error, we obtain uniform confidence sets and optimal rates (up to log-factors) for all quantities. SLAM is efficiently computed as a nonconvex optimization problem by a dynamic program tailored to the finite alphabet assumption. Its performance is investigated in a simulation study. Finally, it is applied to assign copy-number aberrations from genetic sequencing data to different clones and to estimate their proportions.
通过正交化自适应估计发现存在混杂的时间序列因果滞后结构
Finding which variables cause which others in multivariate time series, and at what lags, is central to science and policy, yet existing methods force a choice between flexible confounder adjustment, data-driven lag selection, and inference that controls the false discovery rate (FDR). ORACLE-VARX does all three in one pipeline. First, double/debiased machine learning (DML) removes nonlinear confounder effects from the outcomes and the lagged series. Second, adaptive causal…
预测比较中的不确定性量化
Skill scores, which measure the relative improvement of a forecasting method over a benchmark via consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules, are a standard tool in forecast evaluation, yet their sampling uncertainty is rarely rigorously quantified. With modern forecasting applications being increasingly multivariate and involving evaluations across multiple horizons, variables, spatial locations, and forecasting methods, standard tools like the pairwise…
非平稳波动环境下股票收益可预测性的实时监测
Stock return predictability, should it exist, is likely to be episodic in nature. In order to exploit such pockets of predictability it is essential that they are rapidly detected, in real-time, as the nascent predictive regime emerges. This will typically entail the repeated (sequential) application of one-shot end-of-sample predictability statistics, updated as new data become available. Consequently, in addition to dealing with the usual inference problems caused by…
时变可预测性的稳健推断:Sieve-IVX 方法
Predictive regression models are often used to evaluate the predictive capability of economic fundamentals on bond and equity returns. Inferential procedures in these regressions typically employ parameter constancy or piecewise constancy in slope coefficients. Such formulations are prone to misspecification, more especially during periods of disturbance or evolution in prevailing economic and financial conditions, which can lead to size distortion and spurious evidence of…
含噪网络测量下时变网络构成与预测依赖的分离
A common question about networked time series is whether outcomes changed because shocks transmit more strongly or because the pattern of connections changed. Standard practice inserts a recorded network into an outcome regression and reads movements of the fitted coefficient as changes in transmission strength. When the network is latent, time varying, and measured with error, this reading fails: changes in strength and changes in composition can produce the same outcome…
时变相关性推断的渐近一致错误发现率控制
Inference for locally stationary time series is challenging because the associated hypotheses form an uncountable collection over a continuous time interval, making pointwise false discovery rate (FDR) control inadequate for simultaneous statistical guarantees. We introduce a novel asymptotically uniform false discovery rate (AuFDR), defined as the expectation of the $L_r$-norm of the false discovery proportion (FDP) process where $r$ is allowed to diverge, to quantify and…