Consistencies and rates of convergence of jump-penalized least squares estimators
跳跃惩罚最小二乘估计的一致性与收敛速度AI 解读 ↓
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跳跃惩罚最小二乘估计的一致性与收敛速度AI 解读 ↓
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We study the asymptotics for jump-penalized least squares regression aiming at approximating a regression function by piecewise constant functions. Besides conventional consistency and convergence rates of the estimates in L2([0, 1)) our results cover other metrics like Skorokhod metric on the space of càdlàg functions and uniform metrics on C([0, 1]). We will show that these estimators are in an adaptive sense rate optimal over certain classes of “approximation spaces.” Special cases are the class of functions of bounded variation (piecewise) Hölder continuous functions of order 0<α≤1 and the class of step functions with a finite but arbitrary number of jumps. In the latter setting, we will also deduce the rates known from change-point analysis for detecting the jumps. Finally, the issue of fully automatic selection of the smoothing parameter is addressed.
多维速度变化检测中惩罚最大似然估计的一致性
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拟最大似然断点估计的锐信噪比阈值
We establish a sharp pathwise signal-to-noise criterion for quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation of a dominant breakpoint in the second-moment structure of a multivariate time series: the QML estimator is consistent whenever the between-regime contrast exceeds the within-regime fluctuation by an explicit factor, and below this threshold global recovery can fail. Two innovations drive the result. First, the framework is pathwise: no stochastic model is imposed on the…
用于检测时间序列依赖结构变点的量子互信息统计量
Detecting when the dependence between two components of a multivariate time series changes, while the marginals drift freely, requires a dependence-specific statistic. We take the inferential object to be a density operator -- the trace-normalised second moment of unit-norm random Fourier features of ranks -- rather than a probability distribution. Partial traces recover the marginal operators exactly, so von Neumann entropies yield a quantum mutual information (QMI)…
面板数据模型中折点的估计与检验
Many economic and financial relationships may change gradually rather than abruptly. We study panel data models in which the coefficient vector is continuous and piecewise linear in calendar time, with a finite number of unknown kink dates at which its slope changes. We propose a penalised least squares estimator that applies adaptive weighted group penalties to the second differences of the coefficient path, and develop asymptotic theory showing that it recovers both the…
时变向量自回归的模型平均
This paper proposes a novel time-varying model averaging (TVMA) approach to enhancing forecast accuracy for multivariate time series subject to structural changes. The TVMA method averages predictions from a set of time-varying vector autoregressive models using optimal time-varying combination weights selected by minimizing a penalized local criterion. This allows the relative importance of different models to adaptively evolve over time in response to structural shifts. We…
Causal-TS:高维与非平稳时间序列因果发现的 Python 库
We describe Causal-TS, an open-source Python library for causal discovery in high-dimensional and nonstationary multivariate time series. Causal-TS provides four specialized algorithms-CDNOTS, CDNOTS+, CEDAR, and GRACE-along with wrappers for GES, Granger, LASSO-VAR, and LGES, all sharing a unified conditional independence (CI) test layer with GPU acceleration via PyTorch. A regime discovery pipeline detects structural breaks via pluggable changepoint detectors and runs…