Simulated Stochastic Approximation Annealing for Global Optimization With a Square-Root Cooling Schedule
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Simulated annealing has been widely used in the solution of optimization problems. As known by many researchers, the global optima cannot be guaranteed to be located by simulated annealing unless a logarithmic cooling schedule is used. However, the logarithmic cooling schedule is so slow that no one can afford to use this much CPU time. This article proposes a new stochastic optimization algorithm, the so-called simulated stochastic approximation annealing algorithm, which is a combination of simulated annealing and the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. Under the framework of stochastic approximation, it is shown that the new algorithm can work with a cooling schedule in which the temperature can decrease much faster than in the logarithmic cooling schedule, for example, a square-root cooling schedule, while guaranteeing the global optima to be reached when the temperature tends to zero. The new algorithm has been tested on a few benchmark optimization problems, including feed-forward neural network training and protein-folding. The numerical results indicate that the new algorithm can significantly outperform simulated annealing and other competitors. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a popular Bayesian ensemble model used in regression and classification analysis. Under this modeling framework, the regression function is approximated by an ensemble of decision trees, interpreted as weak learners. In this work, we propose a generalization of the BART model that has two main features: first, it automatically selects the number of decision trees using the given data; second, the model allows clusters of…
The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated in clinical studies to refute a homogeneous treatment effect hypothesis. Under this regime, all patients making up the population experience identical benefit from a given treatment relative to a comparator. Uncovering heterogeneous treatment effects through inference about the CATE, however, requires that covariates truly modifying the treatment effect be reliably collected at baseline. CATE-based…
TMLE 与 AIPW 中样本分割选择何时重要:交叉拟合、目标化与重复
Variants of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) and augmented inverse-probability weighting (AIPW) with machine-learning nuisance models differ in which observations train them, how bias is corrected, and whether splits are repeated. In known-truth simulations of a binary-outcome average treatment effect, eight headline estimators shared each setting's library, inner folds and truncation bound; coverage differences were judged against a prespecified…
用循环神经网络预测自回归非因果过程
This paper examines the use of recurrent neural networks and their extensions for forecasting autoregressive causal-noncausal processes, characterized by local explosive patterns such as bubbles and spikes. We study the recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), bidirectional LSTM, and also a simple feed-forward network (FNN) to reveal the difficulty of forecasting extreme values depending on the type of network and…
跨疾病临床治疗指标的关联:基于 SEER-Medicare 的深度神经网络分析
In outcomes research, clinical treatment measures are routinely analyzed. Most existing studies focus on individual diseases, and increasing recent evidence suggests that clinical treatment measures of different diseases can be “correlated” (or interconnected). Existing studies on such interconnections are usually limited to a small number of diseases. In this study, for U.S. older patients with common cancers, we complement the existing literature and conduct a pan-disease…
嵌套工具变量分析:转换者平均处理效应及可推广性
Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the non-ignorable treatment received. Under a monotonicity assumption, a valid IV nonparametrically identifies the average treatment effect among a latent complier subgroup, whose generalizability is often under debate. In many studies, there exist…