A nondegenerate Vuong test and post selection confidence intervals for semi/nonparametric models
半参数与非参数模型的非退化 Vuong 检验及选择后置信区间AI 解读 ↓
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半参数与非参数模型的非退化 Vuong 检验及选择后置信区间AI 解读 ↓
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This paper proposes a new model selection test for the statistical comparison of semi/non‐parametric models based on a general quasi‐likelihood ratio criterion. An important feature of the new test is its uniformly exact asymptotic size in the overlapping nonnested case, as well as in the easier nested and strictly nonnested cases. The uniform size control is achieved without using pretesting, sample‐splitting, or simulated critical values. We also show that the test has nontrivial power against all n ‐local alternatives and against some local alternatives that converge to the null faster than n . Finally, we provide a framework for conducting uniformly valid post model selection inference for model parameters. The finite sample performance of the nondegenerate test and that of the post model selection inference procedure are illustrated in a mean‐regression example by Monte Carlo.
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弱依赖非线性时间序列模型准似然估计量的一致高斯近似
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利用多分位数稳健检验多变量波动率的结构变化
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靶向深度生存对比:神经网络下处理特定生存收益的有效推断
Neural survival models are increasingly asked to support counterfactual claims---how much a treatment would change survival in a population---rather than only prognostic risk scores. Answering such questions from observational data requires valid inference for treatment-specific survival contrasts under confounding and covariate-dependent censoring, targets for which standard deep survival estimators are biased and provide no honest uncertainty. We propose Targeted Deep…