Partially Identified Econometric Models
部分识别的计量经济模型AI 解读 ↓
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部分识别的计量经济模型AI 解读 ↓
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This paper studies a class of models where full identification is not necessarily assumed. We term such models partially identified. It is argued that partially identified systems are of practical importance since empirical investigators frequently proceed under conditions that are best described as apparent identification. One objective of the paper is to explore the properties of conventional statistical procedures in the context of identification failure. Our analysis concentrates on two major types of partially identified model: the classic simultaneous equations model under rank condition failures; and time series spurious regressions. Both types serve to illustrate the extensions that are needed to conventional asymptotic theory if the theory is to accommodate partially identified systems. In many of the cases studied, the limit distributions fall within the class of compound normal distributions. They are simply represented as covariance matrix or scalar mixtures of normals. This includes time series spurious regressions, where representations in terms of functionals of vector Brownian motion are more conventional in recent research following earlier work by the author.
结合宏观与微观数据的异质性主体模型全信息估计
We develop a generally applicable full‐information inference method for heterogeneous agent models, combining aggregate time series data and repeated cross‐sections of micro data. To handle unobserved aggregate state variables that affect cross‐sectional distributions, we compute a numerically unbiased estimate of the model‐implied likelihood function. Employing the likelihood estimate in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, we obtain fully efficient and valid Bayesian…
内生随机单位根模型中的 IV 与 GMM 推断
Lieberman and Phillips (2017; LP) introduced a multivariate stochastic unit root (STUR) model, which allows for random, time varying local departures from a unit root (UR) model, where nonlinear least squares (NLLS) may be used for estimation and inference on the STUR coefficient. In a structural version of this model where the driver variables of the STUR coefficient are endogenous, the NLLS estimate of the STUR parameter is inconsistent, as are the corresponding estimates…
计量经济学中的若干不可能性定理及其在结构与动态模型中的应用
General characterizations of valid confidence sets and tests in problems involving (locally almost) unidentified (LAU) parameters are presented. In particular, any valid confidence set for an unbounded LAU parameter must be unbounded with positive probability. Consequently, almost surely bounded confidence sets, like Wald-type confidence sets, have zero coverage probability and Wald-type test statistics cannot be pivotal functions. The results are applied to simultaneous…
计量经济学:统计基础与应用
1. Elementary Aspects of Multivariate Analysis.- 1.1 Preliminaries.- 1.2 Joint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions.- 1.3 A Mathematical Digression.- 1.4 The Multivariate Normal Distribution.- 1.5 Correlation Coefficients and Related Topics.- 1.6 Estimators of the Mean Vector and Covariance Matrix and their Distribution.- 1.7 Tests of Significance.- 2. Applications of Multivariate Analysis.- 2.1 Canonical Correlations and Canonical Variables.- 2.2 Principal Components.-…
关于从时间序列统计估计供需关系的札记
IN A discussion in this Journal of the estimation from time series of economic relations such as demand and supply equations, G. Tintner developed a technique based on multivariate methods of statistical analysis, the economic relations being identified with the linear relations existing (within the limits of observational error) among the economic variables considered. In the present note a more precise analysis of the same type is adopted in which some of the limitations…
内生抽样时间序列的估计:钢材市场价格投机案例
We consider the problem of estimating a Markov process that is endogenously sampled. We observe a discrete-time Markov process {pt} at a set of random times {t1,…,tn} that depend on the outcome of a probabilistic sampling rule that depends on the state of the process and other observed covariates xt. We focus on a particular example where pt is the daily wholesale price of a standardized steel product. The endogenous sampling problem arises from the fact that we only observe…