Optimal sequential detection in multi-stream data
多数据流中的最优序贯检测AI 解读 ↓
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反馈分类问题多数据流中的最优序贯检测AI 解读 ↓
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Consider a large number of detectors each generating a data stream. The task is to detect online, distribution changes in a small fraction of the data streams. Previous approaches to this problem include the use of mixture likelihood ratios and sum of CUSUMs. We provide here extensions and modifications of these approaches that are optimal in detecting normal mean shifts. We show how the (optimal) detection delay depends on the fraction of data streams undergoing distribution changes as the number of detectors goes to infinity. There are three detection domains. In the first domain for moderately large fractions, immediate detection is possible. In the second domain for smaller fractions, the detection delay grows logarithmically with the number of detectors, with an asymptotic constant extending those in sparse normal mixture detection. In the third domain for even smaller fractions, the detection delay lies in the framework of the classical detection delay formula of Lorden. We show that the optimal detection delay is achieved by the sum of detectability score transformations of either the partial scores or CUSUM scores of the data streams.
In this paper, we develop bootstrap methods for factor-augmented regressions with potentially weak common components, allowing signal eigenvalues to diverge at heterogeneous rates $N^{α_k}$, where $0<α_k\leq1$, $k=1,\ldots,r$. The regression estimator targets a rotation of the latent parameter vector that may be data dependent, while factor estimation can induce asymptotic bias. The proposed procedure directly constructs the rotation-specific target in the bootstrap world,…
Mendelian randomization (MR) infers causal effects of exposures on outcomes using genetic variants as instrumental variables, but existing methods remain vulnerable to bias and loss of power when instruments are invalid. We hypothesize that closely related outcome traits share a large overlap in their valid instruments for a given exposure, so that borrowing instruments across such traits can yield more robust MR inference. To operationalize this, we introduce a novel…
使用生成模型检验条件分布相等
Conditional distribution equality testing is a core problem with applications in causal inference, model diagnostics, and transfer learning. Existing methods often lose power when the conditioning variable is high-dimensional. We propose a new test that leverages generative models to compare conditional distributions using both observed data and synthetic samples. A sample-splitting and studentization scheme is introduced to control estimation error. Under the null, the test…
Factor models for longitudinal data, where policy adoption is unconfounded with respect to a low-dimensional set of latent factor loadings, have become increasingly popular for causal inference. Most existing approaches, however, rely on a causal finite-sample approach or computationally intensive methods, limiting their applicability and external validity. In this paper, we propose a novel method for panel causal inference within a super-population framework, based on…
Normality pre-tests on reduced-form innovations cannot detect whether two or more underlying structural shocks are Gaussian, and hence cannot detect a failure of identification in non-Gaussian SVARs. We propose a bootstrap-based approach that reveals such a failure. Under the null of valid identification and certain regularity conditions, the conditional bootstrap distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the impact matrix is asymptotically normal, so the…
结合 model-X knockoffs 与 p 值的高维线性模型 FDR 控制
We propose a novel multiple testing methodology for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) in high-dimensional linear models that integrates model-X knockoff techniques with debiased penalized regression estimators. At the foundation of our methodology, we construct and study two sets of naturally paired high-dimensional test statistics and the associated $p$-values for evaluating the same null hypotheses. The first set is shown to be asymptotically mutually independent,…