The Maximum Likelihood Method for Testing Changes in the Parameters of Normal Observations
检验正态观测参数变化的最大似然方法AI 解读 ↓
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检验正态观测参数变化的最大似然方法AI 解读 ↓
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We compute the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood ratio test when we want to check whether the parameters of normal observations have changed at an unknown point. The proof is based on the limit distribution of the largest deviation between a $d$-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the origin.
利用多分位数稳健检验多变量波动率的结构变化
We propose an omnibus nonparametric test for structural changes in the multivariate volatility matrix. The test aggregates bounded generalized quantile scores over a range of quantile levels and has a weighted leave-$q$-out $U$-statistic representation. Deleting nearby index pairs renders the centering effect induced by serial dependence asymptotically negligible. All quantities required for implementation, including the variance estimator used for standardization, are…
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分类时间序列的变点检测及加拿大每日总云量应用
Changepoints are essential for homogenizing categorical time series and analyzing their trends and variations. The original total cloud cover in Canada was recorded hourly in tenths (or eighths), exhibiting inherent seasonality and serial correlation. Lu and Wang (2012) introduced an extended cumulative logit model to detect shifts in the annual frequencies of cloud cover conditions. While annual aggregation mitigates seasonality and serial correlation, it shortens the time…
混合矩阵值自回归模型
Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for instance, countries and economic indices. The matrix autoregressive (MAR) model provides a parsimonious approach for analyzing such data. However, the MAR model, being a linear model with parametric constraints, cannot capture the nonlinear…
通过样本加权推断回归中的变点
We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via weights assigned to each sample, to obtain weighted versions of standard estimators such as M-estimators and maximum-likelihood estimators. Under mild assumptions on the data, we obtain a precise asymptotic characterization of the…
含外生变量的组成时间序列序贯变点检测
Sequential change-point detection for time series enables us to sequentially check the hypothesis that the model still holds as more and more data are observed. It is widely used in data monitoring in practice. In this work, we consider sequential change-point detection for compositional time series, time series in which the observations are proportions. For fitting compositional time series, we propose a generalized Beta AR(1) model, which can incorporate exogenous…