Convexity Not Required: Estimation of Smooth Moment Condition Models
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Generalized and Simulated Method of Moments are often used to estimate structural Economic models. Yet, it is commonly reported that optimization is challenging because the corresponding objective function is non-convex. For smooth problems, this paper shows that convexity is not required: under conditions involving the Jacobian of the moments, certain algorithms are globally convergent. These include a gradient-descent and a Gauss-Newton algorithm with appropriate choice of tuning parameters. The results are robust to 1) non-convexity, 2) one-to-one moderately non-linear reparameterizations, and 3) moderate misspecification. The conditions preclude non-global optima. Numerical and empirical examples illustrate the condition, non-convexity, and convergence properties of different optimizers.
BLP 模型中的条件矩估计与推断
The random-coefficient demand model of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) is commonly estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), using an unconditional moment restriction with a fixed set of instruments. Identification of the model, however, rests on a conditional moment restriction. The two are not equivalent: the unconditional restriction may admit additional parameter values. We construct a counterexample in which the model is identified by the conditional…
不可转移效用双边网络形成模型的矩条件
This paper investigates the construction of moment restrictions in dyadic network formation models with unobserved individual heterogeneity under nontransferable utility. Using observed links and covariates from five-node pentads, we construct moment restrictions that do not depend on individual fixed effects. For a broad class of covariate specifications, the construction is minimal in the sense that it uses the least possible number of nodes and dyads. Based on these…
基于机器学习的去偏 U 统计量
We propose a method to debias estimators based on U-statistics with machine-learning (ML) first steps. Standard plug-in estimators often suffer from regularization and model-selection biases, leading to invalid inference. We characterize orthogonal adjustment terms for two-step U-statistics, construct Debiased Machine Learning (DML) U-estimators, develop a cross-fitting algorithm, and establish a general asymptotic theory for inference with ML first steps. We illustrate the…
利用工具变量交互识别与推断结构加速失效时间模型
We study causal inference for time-to-event outcomes under right censoring in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Focusing on structural accelerated failure time models, we develop an identification and inference framework that exploits interactions among instrumental variables. The proposed approach does not rely on classical instrumental variable validity and yields valid causal inference under both valid and invalid instruments, provided that the interaction-based…
可容许误设的 GMM:准贝叶斯方法
Structural estimation in economics often makes use of models formulated in terms of moment conditions. While these moment conditions are generally well-motivated, it is often unknown whether the moment restrictions hold exactly. We consider a framework where researchers model their belief about the potential degree of misspecification via a prior distribution and adopt a quasi-Bayesian approach for performing inference on structural parameters. We provide quasi-posterior…
不依赖生产率动态设定的生产函数非参数识别与估计
Production function estimates underpin the measurement of firm-level markups, allocative efficiency, and the productivity effects of policy interventions. Since Olley and Pakes (1996), every major proxy variable estimator has identified the production function through a first-order Markov assumption on unobserved productivity; I show that misspecification of this assumption generates persistent upward bias in the materials elasticity that propagates into overestimated…