Inferring Causal Effect of a Digital Communication Strategy under a Latent Sequential Ignorability Assumption and Treatment Noncompliance
潜在序贯可忽略性假设与处理不依从下的数字沟通策略因果效应推断AI 解读 ↓
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AI 根据所提供的论文材料归类：摘要明确研究纵向观察数据中的策略因果效应，并处理不依从与序贯混杂，因此归入因果推断。
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潜在序贯可忽略性假设与处理不依从下的数字沟通策略因果效应推断
- 研究问题
- 如何从促销邮件序列的观察数据中评估沟通策略的因果效应，同时处理定向发送、未打开邮件及未观测序贯混杂？
- 方法与思路
- 作者采用纵向数据的贝叶斯因果推断方法，评估确定性邮件策略的平均处理效应，并比较依从行为与客户分群下的策略。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要称方法支持策略评估、依从行为比较与分群优化；应用发现部分邮件维持客户参与，经常打开邮件者对促销较不敏感。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对潜在序贯可忽略性的定义、依从类型与未观测混杂的建模，以及策略效应识别、最优策略选择和敏感性分析。
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- 仅据版本未注明的 OpenAlex 索引摘要；识别假设、先验与效应大小未说明，不能据此验证因果结论或推断刊本变化。
原文摘要
Organizations are increasingly relying on digital communications, such as targeted e-mails and mobile notifications, to engage with their audiences. Despite the evident advantages like cost-effectiveness and customization, assessing the effectiveness of such communications from observational data poses various statistical challenges. An immediate challenge is to adjust for targeting rules used in these communications. When digital communications involve a sequence of e-mails or notifications, however, further adjustments are required to correct for selection bias arising from previous communications influencing the subsequent ones and to deal with noncompliance issues, for example, not opening the e-mail. This article addresses these challenges in a study of promotional e-mail sequences sent by a U.S. retailer. We use a Bayesian methodology for causal inference from longitudinal data, considering targeting, noncompliance, and sequential confounding with unmeasured variables. The methodology serves three objectives: to evaluate the average treatment effect of any deterministic e-mailing strategy, to compare the effectiveness of these strategies across varying compliance behaviors, and to infer optimal strategies for distinct customer segments. Our analysis finds, among other things, that certain promotional e-mails effectively maintain engagement among individuals who have regularly received such incentives, and individuals who consistently open their e-mails exhibit reduced sensitivity to promotional content. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.