Economic Diversification and Social Progress in the GCC Countries: A Study on the Transition from Oil-Dependency to Knowledge-Based Economies
海湾国家的经济多元化与社会进步：从石油依赖到知识经济AI 解读 ↓
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海湾国家的经济多元化与社会进步：从石油依赖到知识经济
- 研究问题
- 海湾六国在经济多元化和社会发展方面进展如何，能否用社会进步指数预测其向知识型经济转型中的福祉变化？
- 方法与思路
- 作者使用二〇一〇至二〇二三年世界银行数据，经预处理和特征选择后，以 ARIMA 模拟解释变量并用 XGBoost 预测指数。
- 材料陈述的贡献
- 摘要报告教育、医疗和女性权利方面的改善，以及个人权利和包容性方面的挑战，并预测社会进步指数继续提高。
- 阅读关注点
- 应核对社会进步指数及预测变量的数据来源、未来变量模拟方式和预测验证；摘要的预测期与结论年份存在不一致。
- 阅读边界
- 这是 arXiv 预印本，同行评审或期刊接收未获核实；摘要同时提及预测至二〇二六年和改善至二〇二七年，未解释差异。
原文摘要
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries -- Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia -- holds strategic significance due to its large oil reserves. However, these nations face considerable challenges in shifting from oil-dependent economies to more diversified, knowledge-based systems. This study examines the progress of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in achieving economic diversification and social development, focusing on the Social Progress Index (SPI), which provides a broader measure of societal well-being beyond just economic growth. Using data from the World Bank, covering 2010 to 2023, the study employs the XGBoost machine learning model to forecast SPI values for the period of 2024 to 2026. Key components of the methodology include data preprocessing, feature selection, and the simulation of independent variables through ARIMA modeling. The results highlight significant improvements in education, healthcare, and women's rights, contributing to enhanced SPI performance across the GCC countries. However, notable challenges persist in areas like personal rights and inclusivity. The study further indicates that despite economic setbacks caused by global disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price volatility, GCC nations are expected to see steady improvements in their SPI scores through 2027. These findings underscore the critical importance of economic diversification, investment in human capital, and ongoing social reforms to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons and build knowledge-driven economies. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to strengthen both social and economic resilience in the region while advancing long-term sustainable development goals.