A SIMPLE ITERATIVE Z-ESTIMATOR FOR SEMIPARAMETRIC MODELS
半参数模型的简易迭代 Z 估计量AI 解读 ↓
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半参数模型的简易迭代 Z 估计量AI 解读 ↓
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We propose a new iterative estimation algorithm for use in semiparametric models where calculation of Z-estimators by conventional means is difficult or impossible. Unlike a Newton–Raphson approach, which makes use of the entire Hessian, this approach only uses curvature information associated with portions of the Hessian that are relatively easy to calculate. Consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators obtained from this algorithm are established under regularity conditions and an information dominance condition. Two specific examples, a quantile regression model with missing covariates and a GARCH-in-mean model with conditional mean of unknown functional form, demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm. This new approach can be interpreted as an extension of the maximization by parts estimation approach to semiparametric models.
弱依赖非线性时间序列模型准似然估计量的一致高斯近似
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We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted quantile regression. Focusing on downside risk, VaR is derived from the left-tail quantile of rescaled returns, and ES is approximated by averaging quantiles below the VaR level. The method delivers robust, distribution-free estimates of extreme…
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时间序列的在线广义矩估计
Online learning has gained popularity in recent years due to the urgent need to analyse large-scale streaming data, which can be collected in perpetuity and serially dependent. This motivates us to develop the online generalized method of moments (OGMM), an explicitly updated estimation and inference framework in the time series setting. The OGMM inherits many properties of offline GMM, such as its broad applicability to many problems in econometrics and statistics, natural…
动态系统性风险度量的统计推断
Systemic risk measures (SRM) quantify the risk of a system induced by the possible distress of any of its components. Applications in economics and finance are numerous. We define a general dynamic framework for the risk factors, allowing us to obtain explicit expressions of the corresponding dynamic SRM. We deduce an easy-to-implement statistical approach which, based on semi-parametric assumptions, reduces to estimating univariate location-scale models and to computing…