NONPARAMETRIC NONSTATIONARITY TESTS
非参数非平稳性检验AI 解读 ↓
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非参数非平稳性检验AI 解读 ↓
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We propose additive functional-based nonstationarity tests that exploit the different divergence rates of the occupation times of a (possibly nonlinear) process under the null of nonstationarity (stationarity) versus the alternative of stationarity (nonstationarity). We consider both discrete-time series and continuous-time processes. The discrete-time case covers Harris recurrent Markov chains and integrated processes. The continuous-time case focuses on Harris recurrent diffusion processes. Notwithstanding finite-sample adjustments discussed in the paper, the proposed tests are simple to implement and rely on tabulated critical values. Simulations show that their size and power properties are satisfactory. Our robustness to nonlinear dynamics provides a solution to the typical inconsistency problem between assumed linearity of a time series for the purpose of nonstationarity testing and subsequent nonlinear inference.
检测Copula结构变化的平滑检验方法
This paper develops novel smooth tests for structural changes in the innovation copula of multivariate dynamic models. We characterize deviations from copula constancy through a collection of generalized Fourier coefficients and test their joint significance. Under the null hypothesis, estimation of the dynamic parameters and the unknown marginals has no first-order estimation effect on the proposed statistics. Consequently, the feasible tests based on estimated residuals…
即期相关过程日内变动的非参数检验
The association between log-price increments of exchange-traded equities, as measured by their spot correlation estimated from high-frequency data, exhibits a pronounced upwardsloping and almost piecewise linear relationship at the intraday horizon. There is notably lower—on average less positive—correlation in the morning than in the afternoon. We develop a nonparametric testing procedure to detect such variation in a correlation process. The test statistic has a known…
观察性时间序列动态因果效应的半参数推断
In observational time series, statistical inference for dynamic causal effects of a one-time intervention across horizons is complicated by high-dimensional observed pre-treatment information, unmeasured confounding, and serial dependence. To address these challenges, we develop a semiparametric framework for inference from a single serially dependent time series, integrating debiased machine learning with instrumental variables through buffered block cross-fitting. Under…
非平稳波动环境下股票收益可预测性的实时监测
Stock return predictability, should it exist, is likely to be episodic in nature. In order to exploit such pockets of predictability it is essential that they are rapidly detected, in real-time, as the nascent predictive regime emerges. This will typically entail the repeated (sequential) application of one-shot end-of-sample predictability statistics, updated as new data become available. Consequently, in addition to dealing with the usual inference problems caused by…
通过条件中心化进行非线性 Granger 因果的 RKHS 推断
Granger causality is commonly formulated through linear prediction in vector autoregressive models, limiting its ability to detect nonlinear predictive relationships. We propose a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS)-based test for nonlinear Granger non-causality in conditional mean for nonlinear autoregressive processes. The key idea is a conditional-centering decomposition of the target regression function into an own-history component and an orthogonal component…
时间序列中的条件独立检验
We consider the problem of testing Granger causality in time series, specifically, whether the future outcome $Y_{t+1}$ and the exposure history $\bar X_t$ are conditionally independent given the history of $\bar Y_t$ and a set of confounding variables $\bar Z_t$ up to time $t$. This testing procedure distinguishes true causal effects from associations driven by common external processes, supporting reliable decision-makings in applications such as finance, neuroscience, and…