SMOOTH VARYING-COEFFICIENT ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE FOR QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE DATA
兼容定性与定量数据的平滑变系数估计与推断AI 解读 ↓
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兼容定性与定量数据的平滑变系数估计与推断AI 解读 ↓
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We propose a semiparametric varying-coefficient estimator that admits both qualitative and quantitative covariates along with a test for correct specification of parametric varying-coefficient models. The proposed estimator is exceedingly flexible and has a wide range of potential applications including hierarchical (mixed) settings, small area estimation, etc. A data-driven cross-validatory bandwidth selection method is proposed that can handle both the qualitative and quantitative covariates and that can also handle the presence of potentially irrelevant covariates, each of which can result in finite-sample efficiency gains relative to the conventional frequency (sample-splitting) estimator that is often found in such settings. Theoretical underpinnings including rates of convergence and asymptotic normality are provided. Monte Carlo simulations are undertaken to assess the proposed estimator’s finite-sample performance relative to the conventional semiparametric frequency estimator and to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed test for correct parametric specification.
时变可预测性的稳健推断:Sieve-IVX 方法
Predictive regression models are often used to evaluate the predictive capability of economic fundamentals on bond and equity returns. Inferential procedures in these regressions typically employ parameter constancy or piecewise constancy in slope coefficients. Such formulations are prone to misspecification, more especially during periods of disturbance or evolution in prevailing economic and financial conditions, which can lead to size distortion and spurious evidence of…
分数阶单整的半参数估计:局部 Whittle 方法评估
Fractionally integrated time series, exhibiting long memory with slowly decaying autocorrelations, are frequently encountered in economics, finance, and related fields. Since the seminal work of Robinson (1995), a variety of semiparametric local Whittle estimators have been proposed for estimating the memory parameter $d$, each with a distinct range of validity and different robustness properties, leaving applied researchers to decide which to use and under what conditions.…
非平稳与周期时间序列的函数型半参数建模
Inspired by a real data example illustrating the periodicity in hog price data, this study aims to analyze time series that exhibit an unknown period alongside complex covariate effects. To address these complexities and effectively handle the data structures, we incorporate the partial functional varying-coefficient single-index model into the classical time series decomposition model. We propose a two-stage estimation procedure designed to accurately estimate the unknown…
时变安慰剂效应确证性临床试验中的半参数加权样条回归
In confirmatory Phase 3 clinical trials with recruitment over the years, the underlying placebo effect may follow an unknown temporal trend. Taking a clinical trial on Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS) as an example, fluctuations or variabilities are common in HS-related endpoints, mainly due to the natural disease characteristics, variations of evaluation from different physicians, and standard of care evolvement. The adjustment of time-varying placebo effects receives some…
未知持续性形式下非线性预测回归的按时间修剪最小二乘
Relatively, recent work by Jeganathan (2008, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1649) and Wang (2014, Econometric Theory , 30(3), 509–535) on generalized martingale central limit theorems (MCLTs) implicitly introduces a new class of instrument arrays that yield (mixed) Gaussian limit theory irrespective of the persistence level in the data. Motivated by these developments, we propose a new semiparametric method for estimation and inference in nonlinear predictive regressions…
半参数部分线性变系数众数回归
We in this paper propose a semiparametric partially linear varying coefficient (SPLVC) modal regression, in which the conditional mode function of the response variable given covariates admits a partially linear varying coefficient structure. In comparison to existing regressions, the newly developed SPLVC modal regression captures the “most likely” effect and provides superior prediction performance when the data distribution is skewed. The consistency and asymptotic…