Estimation of Continuous-Time Markov Processes Sampled at Random Time Intervals
随机时间间隔采样下连续时间马尔可夫过程的估计AI 解读 ↓
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随机时间间隔采样下连续时间马尔可夫过程的估计AI 解读 ↓
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We introduce a family of generalized-method-of-moments estimators of the parameters of a continuous-time Markov process observed at random time intervals. The results include strong consistency, asymptotic normality, and a characterization of standard errors. Sampling is at an arrival intensity that is allowed to depend on the underlying Markov process and on the parameter vector to be estimated. We focus on financial applications, including tick-based sampling, allowing for jump diffusions, regime-switching diffusions, and reflected diffusions.
已实现相关性的稳健估计:市场贝塔日内波动的新见解
Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of economic time series and complicates correlation measurement at high frequencies. While the quadrant correlation estimator is robust to volatility dynamics, it has low efficiency under Gaussian sampling. We introduce a subsampled quadrant correlation estimator that improves efficiency while retaining robustness and computational simplicity. The estimator is based solely on sign information and involves no smoothing parameter…
通过尺度累积逐点估计 Hurst 参数:粗糙波动率的抗噪方法
We introduce an estimator for the pointwise, time-varying Hölder exponent (Hurst parameter) of a stochastic process, based on the geometry accumulation integral G_Lambda(t) = integral from Lambda to 1 of |eth_s X(t)| s^{-1} ds, where eth_s X(t) = (X(t+s)-X(t))/s is the scale derivative at resolution s. We prove consistency, noise robustness with explicit threshold Lambda* = sigma^{1/H}, and a CLT at rate (log Lambda)^{-1/2}. The estimator is pointwise in time, defined at…
高频价格停滞因子与波动率估计
In this article, we propose a price staleness factor model that accounts for pervasive market friction across assets and incorporates relevant covariates. Using large-panel high-frequency data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression coefficients, the nonstationary factors, and their loading parameters. These estimators recover the time-varying price staleness probabilities. We develop asymptotic theory in which both the dimension d and the sampling…
已实现正则化回归
We develop a continuous-time penalized regression framework for the estimation of time-varying coefficients and variable selection when both the response and covariates are Itô semimartingales with jumps. The coefficient paths are approximated by spline basis expansions and estimated via least squares from truncated high-frequency increments. In a finite-dimensional setting, we establish consistency and derive a feasible asymptotic distribution for the integrated coefficient…
高频价格停滞因子与波动率估计
In this paper, we propose a price staleness factor model that accounts for pervasive market friction across assets and incorporates relevant covariates. Using large-panel high-frequency data, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression coefficients, the nonstationary factors, and their loading parameters. These estimators recover the time-varying price staleness probabilities. We develop asymptotic theory in which both the dimension $d$ and the sampling…
动态状态空间 HAR 模型
The Heterogeneous AutoRegressive model for the logs of Realised Volatility (HARL) has established itself as the benchmark specification for modelling and forecasting return volatility, owing to its parsimony and ability to capture the strong persistence typically observed in RV. To address potential concerns such as measurement errors, nonlinearities, and non-spherical residuals, numerous variants of the baseline HARL model have been developed in the literature. This paper…