Inference in Generalized Additive Mixed Models by Using Smoothing Splines
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Summary Generalized additive mixed models are proposed for overdispersed and correlated data, which arise frequently in studies involving clustered, hierarchical and spatial designs. This class of models allows flexible functional dependence of an outcome variable on covariates by using nonparametric regression, while accounting for correlation between observations by using random effects. We estimate nonparametric functions by using smoothing splines and jointly estimate smoothing parameters and variance components by using marginal quasi-likelihood. Because numerical integration is often required by maximizing the objective functions, double penalized quasi-likelihood is proposed to make approximate inference. Frequentist and Bayesian inferences are compared. A key feature of the method proposed is that it allows us to make systematic inference on all model components within a unified parametric mixed model framework and can be easily implemented by fitting a working generalized linear mixed model by using existing statistical software. A bias correction procedure is also proposed to improve the performance of double penalized quasi-likelihood for sparse data. We illustrate the method with an application to infectious disease data and we evaluate its performance through simulation.
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
XMSE 感知的自适应经验贝叶斯估计
Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle. We propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage. Its fixed-weight…
条件图模型的稀疏估计及其基因网络应用
In many applications the graph structure in a network arises from two sources: intrinsic connections and connections due to external effects. We introduce a sparse estimation procedure for graphical models that is capable of isolating the intrinsic connections by removing the external effects. Technically, this is formulated as a conditional graphical model, in which the external effects are modeled as predictors, and the graph is determined by the conditional precision…
纵向数据的半参数随机混合模型
We consider inference for a semiparametric stochastic mixed model for longitudinal data. This model uses parametric fixed effects to represent the covariate effects and an arbitrary smooth function to model the time effect and accounts for the within-subject correlation using random effects and a stationary or nonstationary stochastic process. We derive maximum penalized likelihood estimators of the regression coefficients and the nonparametric function. The resulting…
含向量时间序列协变量的时空矩阵自回归模型
We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time series of non-spatial vectors. The proposed model, Matrix AutoRegression with Auxiliary Covariates (MARAC), contains an autoregressive component for the historical matrix predictors and an additive component that maps the auxiliary vector…
多元判别分析与最大惩罚似然密度估计
SUMMARY A new theoretical point of view is discussed in the framework of density estimation. The multivariate true density, viewed as a prior or penalizing factor in a Bayesian framework, is modelled by a Gibbs potential. Estimating the density consists in maximizing the posterior. For efficiency of time, we are interested in an approximate estimator f̂ = Bπ of the true density f, where B is a stochastic operator and π is the raw histogram. Then, we investigate the…