A Distribution Regression Approach to Censored Selection Models
删失选择模型的分布回归方法AI 解读 ↓
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We develop a distribution regression model with a censored selection rule, offering a semi-parametric generalization of the Heckman selection model. Our approach applies to the entire distribution, extending beyond the mean or median, accommodates non-Gaussian error structures, and allows for heterogeneous effects of covariates on both the selection and outcome distributions. By employing a censored selection rule, our model can uncover richer selection patterns according to both outcome and selection variables, compared to the binary selection case. We analyze identification, estimation, and inference of model functionals such as sorting parameters and distributions purged of sample selection. An application to labor supply using data from the UK reveals different selection patterns into full-time and overtime work across gender, marital status, and time. Additionally, decompositions of wage distributions by gender show that selection effects contribute to a decrease in the observed gender wage gap at low quantiles and an increase in the gap at high quantiles for full-time workers. The observed gender wage gap among overtime workers is smaller, which may be driven by different selection behaviors into overtime work across genders.
利用双重机器学习估计直接与间接分位数处理效应
We propose a framework to disentangle the quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment at a specific rank into an indirect quantile treatment effect that operates through a mediator and an unmediated direct quantile treatment effect. We establish identification results for these effects under the sequential ignorability assumption and propose double/debiased machine learning estimators, based on the efficient influence functions of the cumulative distribution functions of…
条件分布处理效应的合成控制方法
This paper proposes a synthetic control (SC) framework for the estimation of conditional distributional treatment effects. Identification rests on a parallel trends condition formulated in the parameter space of the semiparametric distribution regression (DR) model, which keeps the counterfactual conditional distribution within the model class. The weights solve a least-squares problem subject to an adding-up constraint, yielding a closed-form estimator. We derive the…
有序结果的因果推断:基于 Copula 的识别、估计与敏感性分析
In causal inference with ordinal outcomes, several interpretable estimands are functions of the probability that the potential outcome under one treatment is larger than that under another treatment for the same unit. This probability depends on the joint distribution of both potential outcomes and is generally not identifiable. Existing work has focused on sharp bounds of this probability based on partial identification, but bounds are often too wide to be informative. We…
利用替代指标辅助缺失主要结局的高效跨总体分布与分位数处理效应估计
We study target-population distributional and quantile treatment effects when a source study observes treatment and post-treatment surrogates for all source units but observes a long-run primary outcome only for a validation subset, while the target population contributes only baseline covariates. The target estimands are transported counterfactual distribution functions $ψ_a(y)=P(Y^a\le y\mid R=0)$, their quantiles $q_a(τ)$, and the quantile treatment effect $Δ(τ)=q_1(τ)-q_0(τ)$…
通用双重差分的非参数框架
Difference-in-differences (DiD) is a popular approach to evaluate treatment effects in settings where both pre- and post-treatment measurements of the outcome are available. Despite its popularity, existing methods face important limitations. Specifically, they either: (i) only apply to continuous outcomes and the average treatment effect on the treated; (ii) are sensitive to the transformation of the outcome; (iii) rely on a no unmeasured confounding assumption given…
存在混杂时反事实分布的非参数识别与推断
We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the joint distribution by leveraging conditional copulas. To overcome the non-differentiability of bounding min/max operators, we establish the asymptotic properties for both a direct estimator with polynomial margin condition and a smooth…