Change point analysis of high-dimensional data using random projections
利用随机投影分析高维数据变点AI 解读 ↓
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利用随机投影分析高维数据变点AI 解读 ↓
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This paper develops a novel change point identification method for high-dimensional data using random projections. By projecting high-dimensional time series into a one-dimensional space, we are able to leverage the rich literature for univariate time series. We propose applying random projections multiple times and then combining the univariate test results using existing multiple comparison methods. Simulation results suggest that the proposed method tends to have better size and power, with more accurate location estimation. At the same time, random projections may introduce variability in the estimated locations. To enhance stability in practice, we recommend repeating the procedure, and using the mode of the estimated locations as a guide for the final change point estimate. An application to an Australian temperature dataset is presented. This study, though limited to the single change point setting, demonstrates the usefulness of random projections in change point analysis.
高维分段局部平稳时间序列的复杂趋势推断
This paper studies high-dimensional trend inference for piecewise smooth signals under nonstationary noise and asynchronous structural breaks by first detecting asynchronous changes without assuming stationarity and then further exploiting latent group structures to estimate trend functions. In the first step, we propose AJDN (Asynchronous Jump Detection under Nonstationary Noise), a multiscale framework for the identification and localization of jumps in high-dimensional…
高维向量自回归模型中的序贯变点检测
Sequential (online) change-point detection involves continuously monitoring time-series data and triggering an alarm when shifts in the data distribution are detected. We propose an algorithm for real-time identification of alterations in the transition matrices of high-dimensional vector autoregressive models. The algorithm estimates transition matrices and error term variances using regularization techniques applied to training data, then computes a specific test statistic…
多元时间序列中多个结构断点的检测
We propose a new nonparametric procedure (referred to as MuBreD) for the detection and estimation of multiple structural breaks in the autocovariance function of a multivariate (second-order) piecewise stationary process, which also identifies the components of the series where the breaks occur. MuBreD is based on a comparison of the estimated spectral distribution on different segments of the observed time series and consists of three steps: it starts with a consistent…
张量因子模型中多个变点的检测与模态识别
We study the problem of modeling high-dimensional tensor-valued time series under a Tucker decomposition-based factor model while permitting the presence of multiple structural change points. Such data call for a method that (i) handles high dimensionality and complex dependence while achieving consistency in multiple change points and further, (ii) addresses a unique challenge posed by the multi-dimensional array setting, of identifying the modes associated with each change…
高维及可能非平稳时间序列的尾部稳健自协方差矩阵估计
In this paper, we study the autocovariance matrix estimation and inference problems under heavy-tailedness, high-dimensionality, general nonlinear temporal dependence, and potentially nonstationarity of time series. We consider two types of tail-robust autocovariance matrix estimation methods: the element-wise Huber's $M$-estimator and a computationally more efficient element-wise truncated estimator. Both estimators are designed to achieve sharp error bounds in matrix…
用于检测时间序列依赖结构变点的量子互信息统计量
Detecting when the dependence between two components of a multivariate time series changes, while the marginals drift freely, requires a dependence-specific statistic. We take the inferential object to be a density operator -- the trace-normalised second moment of unit-norm random Fourier features of ranks -- rather than a probability distribution. Partial traces recover the marginal operators exactly, so von Neumann entropies yield a quantum mutual information (QMI)…