Model checks for nonlinear cointegrating regression
非线性协整回归的模型检验AI 解读 ↓
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Using the marked empirical processes, this paper develops a test of parametric specification in a nonlinear cointegrating regression model. Unlike the kernel-smoothed U-statistic considered in Gao et al. (2009) and Wang and Phillips (2012), our new test statistic avoids the use of bandwidth, which has some advantages for practitioners. Simulations and a real data example show that our new test has a good finite sample performance. Other contributions of this paper are to provide a rigorous proof on weak convergence for a class of martingales and construct a simulated estimator of the limiting null distribution, which are interesting in their own rights.
协整系统中平滑结构变化的检验
This paper develops an econometric framework for analysing smooth structural change in cointegrated systems following a known intervention time. We consider a vector error-correction model in which the cointegration rank and the pre-intervention cointegrating structure are identified from a stable pre-intervention subsample. After the intervention, both the adjustment coefficients and the cointegrating vectors are allowed to evolve smoothly as functions of rescaled time,…
函数系数回归与气候敏感性分析的新渐近理论
A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long-range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and…
允许单整回归量的函数系数模型局部多项式估计极限理论
Limit theory for functional coefficient cointegrating regression was recently found to be considerably more complex than earlier understood. The issues were explained and correct limit theory derived for the kernel weighted local level estimator in Phillips and Wang (2023b). The present paper provides complete limit theory for the general kernel weighted local pth order polynomial estimators of the functional coefficient and the coefficient derivatives. Both stationary and…
非协整函数系数回归的极限理论与推断
Functional coefficient (FC) cointegrating regressions offer empirical investigators flexibility in modeling economic relationships by introducing covariates that influence the direction and intensity of comovement among nonstationary time series. FC regression models are also useful when formal cointegration is absent, in the sense that the equation errors may themselves be nonstationary, but where the nonstationary series display well-defined FC linkages that can be…
长时间跨度高频回归的若干 fixed-b 结果
This paper develops fixed-b asymptotic results for heteroskedasticity autocorrelation robust (HAR) Wald tests for high frequency data using the continuous time framework of Chang et al. (2023) (CLP). It is shown that the fixed-b limit of HAR Wald tests for high frequency stationary regressions is the same as the standard fixed-b limit in Kiefer and Vogelsang (2005). For the case of cointegrating regression the form of the fixed-b limits are different from the stationary case…
协整多项式回归:完全修正最小二乘法的稳健性
Cointegrating polynomial regressions (CPRs) include deterministic variables, integrated variables, and their powers as explanatory variables. Based on a novel kernel-weighted limit result and a novel functional central limit theorem, this paper shows that the fully modified ordinary least squares (FM-OLS) estimator of Phillips and Hansen (1990, Review of Economic Studies 57, 99–125) is robust to being used in CPRs. Being used in CPRs refers to a widespread empirical practice…