Causal Inference Using Antidotal Variables
利用解偏变量进行因果推断AI 解读 ↓
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利用解偏变量进行因果推断AI 解读 ↓
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This paper shows that incorporating what we call antidotal variables (AV) into a causal treatment effects analysis can with one cross-sectional regression identify the causal effect, the spillover effect, as well as possible biases from selectivity. We apply the AV technique to analyze leave taking arising from the California Paid Family Leave (CPFL) program. Our analysis yields between a 55% and 70% larger treatment effect than the traditional DID methods, which we attribute to confounding effects and spillovers, neither of which are found in traditional studies.
本地收益大、净收益小:波多黎各首次行业进入的直接与溢出效应
I study how first sizable industry entries reshape local and neighboring labor markets in Puerto Rico. Using over a decade of quarterly municipality--industry data (2014Q1--2025Q1), I identify ``first sizable entries'' as large, persistent jumps in establishments, covered employment, and wage bill, and treat these as shocks to local industry presence at the municipio--industry level. Methodologically, I combine staggered-adoption difference-in-differences estimators that are…
存在网络溢出的交错双重差分:识别与估计
This paper studies staggered difference-in-differences designs in which treated and comparison units can be exposed to other units' adoption. Using an exposure mapping specified by the researcher, we define realized and counterfactual exposure states and decompose the total effect into a switching effect of own adoption and a spillover effect under no own adoption. Conditional parallel trends identify the total and switching effects by matching, respectively, the…
存在干扰时的双重差分
In many scenarios, such as the evaluation of place-based policies, potential outcomes depend not only on the unit’s own treatment but also on its neighbors’ treatments. Despite this, “difference-in-differences” (DID) type estimators typically ignore such interference among neighbors. I show in this paper that the canonical DID estimators generally fail to identify interesting causal effects in the presence of neighborhood interference. To incorporate interference structure…
网络依赖与干扰下双重差分的高效非参数估计
Differences-in-differences (DiD) is a causal inference method for observational longitudinal data that assumes parallel expected potential outcome trajectories between treatment groups under the counterfactual scenario where all units receive a specific treatment. In this paper DiD is extended to allow for: (i) non-identically distributed treatment effects and exposure probabilities; (ii) interference, where treatment of one unit can affect outcomes in neighboring units; and…
干扰下的因果识别:处理分配独立性的作用
Empirical researchers routinely invoke the no-interference or \textit{individualistic treatment response} (ITR) assumption to identify causal effects in observational studies, despite concerns that interference across units may arise in many economic settings. This paper studies the causal content of standard ITR-based identification formulas when arbitrary interference is present. We show that, under restrictions on dependence between treatment assignments across units,…
创新税:生成式人工智能采用、生产率悖论与美国银行业系统性风险
This paper evaluates the causal impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) adoption on productivity and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector. Using a novel dataset linking SEC 10-Q filings to Federal Reserve regulatory data for 809 financial institutions over 2018--2025, we employ two complementary identification strategies: Dynamic Spatial Durbin Models (DSDM) to capture network spillovers and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) for causal inference…