THE ECONOMETRICS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS
金融市场计量经济学AI 解读 ↓
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金融市场计量经济学AI 解读 ↓
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The abundance of high-frequency financial data and the rapid development of computer hardware have combined to transform financial economics into, arguably, the most empirically oriented field within the social sciences. At the same time, as a result of the difficulty of conducting genuine market experiments, empirical finance remains firmly grounded in the tradition of model-driven statistical inference that is characteristic of economics. Even so, the richness of data has often spurred a practical orientation that is more familiar in the natural sciences. The combination has proved fertile, leading to the classification of a set of loosely connected empirical topics as a distinct entity, financial econometrics .
利用高频波动率检验爆炸性泡沫
Based on a continuous-time stochastic volatility model with a linear drift, we develop a test for explosive behavior in financial asset prices at a low frequency when prices are sampled at a higher frequency. The test exploits the volatility information in the high-frequency data. The method consists of devolatizing log-asset price increments with realized volatility measures and performing a supremum-type recursive Dickey-Fuller test on the devolatized sample. The proposed…
带自回归误差的线性回归在线变点检测:流式变分贝叶斯方法
Large-scale streaming time-series regression requires methods that can detect structural changes while accounting for serially correlated errors and quantifying uncertainty about the current regime. We propose a streaming variational Bayes method for linear regression with autoregressive errors that combines online changepoint detection with sequential posterior inference. The proposed method processes observations in chronological mini-batches and uses a finite-mixture…
即期相关过程日内变动的非参数检验
The association between log-price increments of exchange-traded equities, as measured by their spot correlation estimated from high-frequency data, exhibits a pronounced upwardsloping and almost piecewise linear relationship at the intraday horizon. There is notably lower—on average less positive—correlation in the morning than in the afternoon. We develop a nonparametric testing procedure to detect such variation in a correlation process. The test statistic has a known…
已实现相关性的稳健估计:市场贝塔日内波动的新见解
Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of economic time series and complicates correlation measurement at high frequencies. While the quadrant correlation estimator is robust to volatility dynamics, it has low efficiency under Gaussian sampling. We introduce a subsampled quadrant correlation estimator that improves efficiency while retaining robustness and computational simplicity. The estimator is based solely on sign information and involves no smoothing parameter…
自回归持续时间模型的自助法
This paper develops bootstrap methods for likelihood-based inference in autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models, where the sample size is endogenously determined by durations observed over a fixed time span. This feature fundamentally shapes the asymptotic framework, particularly so when the durations do not have finite expectation. Building on recent limit theory for heavy-tailed and integrated ACD processes, we analyze recursive bootstrap schemes that either fix…
纯跳半鞅积分波动率泛函的 Glivenko–Cantelli 定理及加密货币应用
We develop a two-step procedure for estimating integrated volatility functionals, defined through the occupation measure of the latent spot volatility process, when the asset price is a pure-jump semimartingale. In the first step, block-based estimators formed from absolute powers of high-frequency increments uniformly approximate local averages of powers of volatility. In the second step, these estimates are aggregated into an empirical occupation measure. Since price…