Consistent Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimators and Groups of Transformations
相合伪极大似然估计量与变换群AI 解读 ↓
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相合伪极大似然估计量与变换群AI 解读 ↓
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In a transformation model yt=c[a(xt,β),ut], where the errors ut are i.i.d. and independent of the explanatory variables xt, the parameters can be estimated by a pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PML) method, that is, by using a misspecified distribution of the errors, but the PML estimator of β is in general not consistent. We explain in this paper how to nest the initial model in an identified augmented model with more parameters in order to derive consistent PML estimators of appropriate functions of parameter β. The usefulness of the consistency result is illustrated by examples of systems of nonlinear equations, conditionally heteroscedastic models, stochastic volatility, or models with spatial interactions.
基于条件异方差识别日度油价冲击及其不确定性
This paper develops a daily structural VAR for identifying oil price shocks from conditional heteroskedasticity and quantifies the transmission of their timevarying uncertainty. Identification exploits volatility clustering and spillovers in a structural GARCH specification and the complete identified set is derived. We derive covariance impulse response functions and introduce a time-varying forecast error variance decomposition (TV-FEVD) that allows for a decomposition of…
隐私保护空间自回归模型的偏差校正与餐馆网络应用
Spatial autoregressive (SAR) models and their extensions are important tools for studying network effects. However, with an increasing emphasis on data privacy, data providers often implement protection measures that render standard SAR models inapplicable. In this study, we introduce a privacy-protected SAR model that incorporates noise into both the response and covariates to meet privacy requirements. With noise present in both components, the traditional quasi-maximum…
适用于多资产的计算高效多元波动率模型
This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model that accommodates dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties such as identifiability and computational tractability for many assets.A sufficient condition for strict stationarity is derived for the process.Two quasi-maximum likelihood estimation methods are proposed for the new model without and with…
Tensor-BEKK:张量时间序列的条件协方差建模与推断
Modern economic and financial data are increasingly organized as multiway arrays, with observations indexed simultaneously by geographic regions, industrial sectors, asset categories, and other economic characteristics. Representing such data as tensor-valued time series preserves their intrinsic multiway structure. Although substantial effort has been devoted to modeling the conditional mean of tensor-valued time series, comparatively less attention has been paid to their…
区域组成数据的时空自回归模型
Compositional data, such as regional shares of economic sectors or property transactions, are central to understanding structural change in economic systems across space and time. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal multivariate autoregressive model tailored for panel data with composition-valued responses at each areal unit and time point. The proposed framework enables the joint modelling of temporal dynamics and spatial dependence under compositional constraints, and…
高维矩阵时间序列的马尔可夫转换动态矩阵因子模型
In this study, we propose a novel model called the Markov-switching dynamic matrix factor (Ms-DMF) model, which serves the dual purpose of structural interpretation and prediction for high-dimensional matrix time series. When estimating the parameters of the Ms-DMF model, an EM (expectation maximization) algorithm was used to get a quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, where all the parameters are estimated jointly. A filtering and smoothing algorithm is used to compute the…