Nonparametric identification and estimation of polychotomous choice models
多类别选择模型的非参数识别与估计AI 解读 ↓
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多类别选择模型的非参数识别与估计AI 解读 ↓
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In this paper we provide conditions guaranteeing the identification of nonparametric polychotomous choice models. In these models, neither the subutility function of observable attributes nor the distribution of the unobservable random terms is specified parametrically. Sets of nonparametric functions that possess properties that are often implied by economic theory and satisfy the restrictions required to identify the models are described. We use the identification results to develop nonparametric strongly-consistent estimators for the subutility function of observable attributes. The results concern models in which the distribution of the unobservable random terms both depend and do not depend on the observable characteristics.
生育、子女性别与父母迁移决策:来自中国的证据
We study how the number and gender of children affect rural-tourban parental migration in China. Exploiting variation from the “1.5- child policy,” which allowed a second birth only if the firstborn was a girl, we separately identify the causal effects of fertility and child gender based on a novel semi-parametric method. Using the 2010 population census, we find that an additional child increases the likelihood of joint parental migration by 12.1 percent, while the presence…
劳动者侧歧视:信念与偏好
When agents choose among options with unobserved attributes to maximize expected utility, their choices conflate preferences with beliefs about those attributes. We develop a novel theory-driven identification strategy for such settings, showing that compensating differentials separately identify beliefs from preferences. Noting that workers’ preferences and beliefs shape labor market outcomes, yet remain understudied, we apply our method to provide the first evidence on the…
BLP 模型中的条件矩估计与推断
The random-coefficient demand model of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995) is commonly estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), using an unconditional moment restriction with a fixed set of instruments. Identification of the model, however, rests on a conditional moment restriction. The two are not equivalent: the unconditional restriction may admit additional parameter values. We construct a counterexample in which the model is identified by the conditional…
注意力过载
We introduce an Attention Overload Model (AOM) in which alternatives compete for attention, so each alternative's consideration probability weakly decreases as the choice problem expands. This nonparametric restriction has a search-capacity foundation. We identify exactly which preference rankings are compatible with observed choices and establish sharp bounds on latent attention. We then consider heterogeneous preferences in settings where alternatives are presented in a…
最大得分模型与线性规划下的二元分类
This paper presents a computationally efficient method for binary classification using Manski's (1975, 1985) maximum score model when covariates are discretely distributed and parameters are partially but not point identified. We establish minimax-regret-optimal classification rules that take account of partial identification of the model's parameters. We bound misclassification probabilities and expected excess regret induced by sampling uncertainty. We also describe an…
部分识别离散响应模型的非参数贝叶斯推断
This paper proposes a nonparametric Bayesian inference framework for partially identified discrete response models. The key observation is that these models map a reduced-form conditional choice probability to an identified set. Consequently, nonparametric Bayesian inference for the conditional probability mass function leads to Bayesian inference for the identified set. The inference framework nests conditional moment inequalities and linear systems with unknown…