Concentrated MCMC estimation
集中化 MCMC 估计AI 解读 ↓
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集中化 MCMC 估计AI 解读 ↓
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This paper studies a concentrated Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method that offers significant computational advantages while delivering valid inference for parameters of interest. By reducing the dimension of parameters to be sampled, this method substantially decreases computational time and memory usage relative to both traditional and some state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms. Its applicability extends to correctly specified or misspecified likelihood functions, as well as generalized method of moments objective functions. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate that the biases and root mean squared errors of the concentrated MCMC estimators are typically smaller than or comparable to those of conventional Bayesian estimators. Furthermore, this method exhibits reliable model selection performance. We establish the large sample properties of the concentrated MCMC estimator. An empirical application analyzing the network spillover effect of stock returns in the Chinese A-share market further illustrates the advantages of this method.
对函数形式稳健的空间自回归双重/去偏机器学习推断
Spatial autoregressive inference is typically conditional on the spatial weights matrix, W, even though the underlying interaction structure is often unknown and empirical conclusions can be sensitive to its specification. This paper develops double/debiased machine learning inference for low-dimensional SAR parameters when the spatial interaction operator is learned flexibly from potentially endogenous characteristics. Within a maintained admissible support, interaction…
含非参数内生效应的空间自回归面板模型估计
This paper proposes a sieve generalized method of moments (GMM) method for the estimation of spatial autoregressive panel data models with nonparametric endogenous effect. The new estimator incorporates both linear moments based on the orthogonality of the exogenous regressors with the model disturbances and quadratic moments based on the properties of idiosyncratic errors. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the sieve GMM estimator and show that it is…
网络双重自回归
Modeling high-dimensional time series with simple structures is a challenging problem. This paper proposes a network double autoregression (NDAR) model, which combines the advantages of network structure and the double autoregression (DAR) model, to handle high-dimensional, conditionally heteroscedastic, and network-structured data within a simple framework. The parameters of the model are estimated using quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, and the asymptotic properties of…
空间计量模型的最优线性与二次矩:美国县域就业增长应用
Summary We provide a novel analytic procedure to construct best linear and quadratic moments of the generalized method of moments estimation for a large class of cross‐sectional network and spatial econometric models. These moments generate an estimator that is asymptotically more efficient than the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator when the disturbances follow a non‐normal and unknown distribution. We apply this procedure to a high‐order spatial autoregressive model with…
具有主导单元的空间自回归模型的 QML 与有效 GMM 估计
This article investigates QML and GMM estimation of spatial autoregressive (SAR) models in which the column sums of the spatial weights matrix might not be uniformly bounded. We develop a central limit theorem in which the number of columns with unbounded sums can be finite or infinite and the magnitude of their column sums can be O(nδ) if δ<1. Asymptotic distributions of QML and GMM estimators are derived under this setting, including the GMM estimators with the best linear…
通过剖面化与袋装法估计稀疏时空自回归模型
We consider a new class of spatio-temporal models with sparse autoregressive coefficient matrices and exogenous variable. To estimate the model, we first profile the exogenous variable out of the response. This leads to a profiled model structure. Next, to overcome endogeneity issue, we propose a class of generalized methods of moment (GMM) estimators to estimate the autoregressive coefficient matrices. A novel bagging-based estimator is further developed to conquer the…