Use of Nonnull Models for Rank Statistics in Bivariate, Two-Sample, and Analysis of Variance Problems
秩统计量非零假设模型在双变量、两样本与方差分析中的应用AI 解读 ↓
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秩统计量非零假设模型在双变量、两样本与方差分析中的应用AI 解读 ↓
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A nonnull model for rank statistics based on Kendall's tau has received quite a bit of attention in the ranking literature lately. In this article, we analyze this model with an eye towards applying it to situations in which nonparametric statistics such as Kendall's tau, the Mann-Whitney/Wilcoxon U, the Jonckheere-Terpstra statistic, the Kruskal-Wallis statistic, and Friedman's statistic for randomized blocks designs are often used. The data for the basic model are a pair of vectors of length n, where both are permutations of the first n integers or one is a fixed and arbitrary design vector and the other a permutation. The model is Mallow's φ model, a one-parameter exponential family with natural statistic the number of discordant pairs between the two vectors. This model originated with Mann and has appeared in many articles since. We extend the model to cases in which there may be ties in the observations and to analysis of variance problems (in which there are several parameters). The first four sections describe the models and verify the asymptotic normality of the statistics and the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters, as well as the asymptotic chi-squared nature of the likelihood ratio statistics under the null hypotheses. In Section 5 we compare the model to some other typical models. Section 6 contains examples, including analysis of the 1970 Draft Lottery data, and a 2 × 2 × 2 analysis of variance design.
This article introduces a framework for evaluating statistical decisions under both prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification. We begin with an ambiguity set - a frequentist model that pairs a possibly misspecified likelihood with every possible prior - and uniformly expand it by a Kullback-Leibler radius to accommodate likelihood misspecification. We show that optimal decisions under this framework are equivalent to minimax decisions with an exponentially tilted loss…
RBF 核高斯过程最大似然估计的精确渐近理论
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used across machine learning, spatial statistics, time-series analysis, optimization, Bayesian statistics, and scientific applications. A central component of a GP model is its kernel, which is typically specified through a parametric family. Among the most widely used choices is the radial basis function (RBF), also known as the squared exponential or Gaussian kernel, owing to its simple form, smoothness, and flexibility. In practice, the…
有限状态嵌套 Markov 模型的递归头几何与无序有效推断
Exploiting the equality restrictions that nested Markov models encode requires their tangent-space geometry. For strictly positive finite-state models on arbitrary acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs), we differentiate the recursive-head chart and prove that the range of its score map is the full tangent space. Intrinsic-set coordinate blocks form an algebraic direct sum, blocks of distinct districts are orthogonal, and the resulting Gram projection needs neither…
弱依赖非线性时间序列模型准似然估计量的一致高斯近似
We study estimation and inference for a semiparametric class of time series models that specify only the conditional expectation, which is a known link function applied to a linear combination of past observations and covariates. The class covers count, binary, bounded and conditionally heteroskedastic responses within a single formulation, and the parameter is estimated by a quasi-likelihood estimating equation based on the first conditional moment. Under stationarity and a…
利用多分位数稳健检验多变量波动率的结构变化
We propose an omnibus nonparametric test for structural changes in the multivariate volatility matrix. The test aggregates bounded generalized quantile scores over a range of quantile levels and has a weighted leave-$q$-out $U$-statistic representation. Deleting nearby index pairs renders the centering effect induced by serial dependence asymptotically negligible. All quantities required for implementation, including the variance estimator used for standardization, are…
靶向深度生存对比:神经网络下处理特定生存收益的有效推断
Neural survival models are increasingly asked to support counterfactual claims---how much a treatment would change survival in a population---rather than only prognostic risk scores. Answering such questions from observational data requires valid inference for treatment-specific survival contrasts under confounding and covariate-dependent censoring, targets for which standard deep survival estimators are biased and provide no honest uncertainty. We propose Targeted Deep…