Prediction of Random Effects in the Generalized Linear Model
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广义线性模型中的随机效应预测AI 解读 ↓
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This article develops an estimating function-based approach to component estimation in the two-stage generalized linear model with univariate random effects and a vector of fixed effects. The novelty and unifying feature of the method is the use of estimating functions in the estimation of both the random effects and their variance. Two separate estimating procedures based on the method are proposed that differ in the intensity of numerical computation required. The estimating function approach is especially valuable in the longitudinal setting where the response variable is discrete and the number of repeated observations on each unit is small. Other key features of this empirical Bayes technique are that it uses all available data, it yields familiar forms for the estimators as special cases, and it is less computationally intensive than other methods designed to address the same problem. An application to the estimation of trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence across risk groups and geographical regions is presented.
动态空间贝叶斯机器学习:美国代际流动与地理收入不平等应用
We develop a Dynamic Spatial Panel Bayesian Additive Regression Trees model with Horseshoe shrinkage (DSP-BART-HS) for high-dimensional spatio-temporal panel data. We jointly evaluate the model against a comprehensive suite of structural spatial econometrics, non-parametric machine learning methods, and small-area estimators across nine data-generating scenarios spanning 200 replicates each, including irregular spatial topologies, dense policy effects, and non-linear…
通过状态空间边际化高效进行动态结构方程模型的贝叶斯估计
Dynamic structural equation models (DSEMs) combine time-series modeling of within-person processes with hierarchical modeling of between-person differences and differences between timepoints, and have become very popular for the analysis of intensive longitudinal data in the social sciences. An important computational bottleneck has, however, still not been resolved: whenever the underlying process is assumed to be latent and measured by one or more indicators per timepoint,…
交错双重差分中的部分同质性
In staggered difference-in-differences (DiD) designs, units enter treatment at different calendar times, so the treatment effect is not a single number but a set of Cohort-Average Treatment effects on the Treated (CATTs), one per cohort-time cell. Estimating every CATT as its own parameter, as the standard fully flexible estimator does, is unbiased but inefficient when some of these effects are in fact equal, whereas pooling them all into a single two-way fixed effects…
非可分面板数据模型中结构与因果效应的线性估计
This paper develops linear estimators for structural and causal parameters of nonseparable models using panel data. These models incorporate unobserved, time-varying, individual heterogeneity, which may be correlated with the regressors. Estimation is based on an approximation of a conditional average potential outcome by a linear sieve specification with individual-specific parameters. Effects of interest are estimated by a bias corrected average of individual ridge…
通过 Riesz 表示构建现代因果面板估计量的贝叶斯稳健性值
We develop a sensitivity-analysis workflow for causal panel estimators, covering synthetic difference-in-differences, matrix completion, fixed-effect imputation, and group-time average treatment effects. The workflow combines Riesz-representation omitted-variable-bias bounds with partial-$R^2$ robustness values and separates two reporting routes. Route A gives a direct sensitivity profile for additive or projected confounding summarized by outcome-side and Riesz-side partial…
随机效应的个体化收缩估计
This paper develops an approach to random effects estimation and individual-level forecasting in micropanels that targets individual accuracy rather than aggregate performance. The conventional shrinkage methods used in the literature, such as the James-Stein estimator and Empirical Bayes, target aggregate performance and can lead to inaccurate decisions at the individual level. We propose a class of shrinkage estimators with individual weights (IW) that leverage an…